Last week, all departments expressed their position of steady growth, and the sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Last week, the building materials sector rose by 2.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1 percentage point. We believe that the main reason for the excess return of the sector is that the state successively stated its position on affordable housing and monetary policy last week, and the market’s expectation of steady growth has improved: 1) at the first press release meeting in 2022, Yuan Da, director general of the Department of comprehensive national economy, said that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance; 2) Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, pointed out at the press conference that the three requirements of this year’s policy are: sufficient force, accurate force and forward force; 3) According to the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, 2.4 million affordable rental housing units will be raised in 2022, an increase of about 155% compared with 2021. It is judged that the policy will still tilt towards steady growth in 2022, and pay attention to the corresponding beneficiary building materials categories with clear growth logic.
Continue to pay attention to the proportion of infrastructure investment in special bonds. According to wind data, from January 14 to 21, 2022, 18 local government special bonds were issued, with a total scale of 84.33 billion yuan. The issuing areas are Anhui, Yunnan and Shaanxi. According to the statistics of the company’s fixed income team, 71.6%, 82.5% and 58.7% of the special bonds issued by Anhui, Yunnan and Shaanxi were invested in infrastructure projects, which was higher than the previous Henan bonds. The proportion of infrastructure investment in the annual special bonds still deserves attention.
The increase in the construction scale of affordable housing helps to partially hedge the downside risks of real estate. Assuming that the 2022 plan is fully implemented, the annual increment of affordable housing will be about 1458000 units. According to the estimation of the area of 70 square meters per unit, the annual increment of affordable housing will be about 102 million square meters, equivalent to about 5.1% of the new construction area of real estate in 2021, which helps to hedge the risk of real estate investment and construction. Since affordable housing is more government led investment projects, we judge that there are two types of core beneficiaries: 1) consumer building materials enterprises with strong channel strength at tog end, and 2) prefabricated architectural design and decoration enterprises. Specific targets of this week: we recommend Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) in the field of ceramic tiles and Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) industry benefits; Recommended Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) in the field of waterproof and coating; Recommend representatives of smart home and hardware Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Guangzhou Seagull Kitchen And Bath Products Co.Ltd(002084) industry to benefit; The leading enterprise Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) is recommended for plastic pipe, and the ad shares, Guangdong Xiongsu Technology Group Co.Ltd(300599) and H shares benefit China Liansu industry; The fabricated interior decoration Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , Suzhou Gold Mantis Construction Decoration Co.Ltd(002081) industry benefited; Leading China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) and other industries of housing construction projects benefited.
The demand for photovoltaic glass shows signs of improvement, and the cost may be the winner in 2022. According to Zhuo Chuang’s data, the production schedule of 2-volt modules was significantly higher than that in January, and the advance preparation increased. Therefore, the orders of photovoltaic glass enterprises were relatively sufficient last week, and the inventory of most manufacturers decreased to varying degrees. It is judged that the demand for photovoltaic glass in the whole year is still high. Under the background of simultaneous growth of demand and production capacity, the price of photovoltaic glass will show an interval fluctuation trend, and the cost leading photovoltaic glass enterprises are expected to achieve high sales and performance growth. Specific targets of this week: we recommend Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , H-share Xinyi solar energy and Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) industries to benefit. From the perspective of building glass, the demand is supported by guaranteed housing delivery in 2022, and the supply rate is likely to shrink due to cold repair. Therefore, the price of white glass is expected to recover from shock repair throughout the year. We recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , H-share China glass. H-share Xinyi Glass and Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) industries benefited.
Risk warning. The demand is lower than expected, the cost is higher than expected, and there are systemic risks.
