Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: under the current background of steady growth, local bonds are issued in advance, infrastructure investment is moderately advanced, and cement demand is expected to be better. At the macro level, the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes efforts to expand effective investment in the manufacturing industry, encourage moderately advanced infrastructure investment, and accelerate the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the traditional construction industry, which will help to optimize the supply pattern of the industry and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: in the short term, the demand for alkali free yarn and electronic yarn maintains stable operation, and there is little room for market price adjustment before the Spring Festival. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the future demand for wind power will be better. From the supply side, the growth of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes efforts to expand effective investment in manufacturing industry, encourages moderately advanced infrastructure investment, and speeds up the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in traditional construction industry, which will help to optimize the supply pattern of the industry and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Fundamentals: the price of China’s cement market continued to decline this week. Affected by off-season factors, the demand of China’s cement market continued to shrink, with only 30-40% of enterprise shipments left. The price of cement continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The market will enter the closed stage next week. In the short term, the cement demand will recover after the Spring Festival, and the cement price is expected to rise gradually. In the medium and long term, under the current background of steady growth, local bonds are issued in advance, infrastructure investment is moderately advanced, and cement demand is expected to be better. At present, the cement regional leaders Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) are mainly recommended.
Recommended glass fiber industry: in the short term, the overall probability of alkali free tank kiln roving is stable, and individual small and medium-sized enterprises have transactions or flexibility. Recently, the demand orders of pond kiln factories are generally increased. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the enthusiasm of downstream delivery is easy. Some products of some factories or transactions are flexible. Most enterprises have general intention of price adjustment, and there is little room for market price adjustment before the Spring Festival; The future market of electronic yarn may show a temporary stable trend. During the week, the prices of China’s main electronic yarn pond kilns decreased significantly, mainly affected by the lack of afterforce of demand support, the delivery in the downstream market is flat, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the price adjustment is of little significance, and the price of electronic yarn may stabilize in the short term. In the medium and long term, the macro level will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, and the future demand for wind power will be better. The addition and replacement of new energy vehicles and wind power provide support for the demand for glass fiber. In addition, from the supply side, the addition of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. In terms of individual stocks, focus on recommending industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , and pay attention to Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of flat glass in December 2021 was 85.96 million boxes, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; From January to December 2021, the output of flat glass was 1.017 billion heavy boxes, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. In the context of the dual carbon policy, photovoltaic glass has ushered in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of dual glass has also brought new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes the industry to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control. We recommend industry leaders Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass with technical and cost advantages, and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) 、 Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) 。
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) are recommended. The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of “one body and two wings” of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and Hong Kong stock China Liansu are recommended in the pipe sector. Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) are recommended for the coating sector.
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
