Key changes this week: ① LPR in one-year period decreased by 0.1% to 3.7%, and LPR in five-year period decreased by 0.05% to 4.6%. ② The central bank stated that "open the monetary policy toolbox wider, maintain the stability of the total amount and avoid credit collapse". ③ The Ministry of housing and urban rural development said it would raise 2.4 million affordable rental housing units in 2022. ④ The registered capital of conch new energy, a subsidiary of Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , was significantly increased from 500 million yuan to 5 billion yuan. ⑤ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) signed a war agreement with sunshine new energy and Hefei Yixin to jointly layout green energy industries such as photovoltaic power generation and energy storage. ⑥ This week, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn was reduced to 5.3 yuan / meter. ⑦ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.434 ~ 3.72 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 20% ~ 30% at the same time. ⑧ The notice on standardizing the enforcement measures of the people's court to ensure that the pre-sale funds of commercial houses are used for project construction was issued.
The reason for Zhou Xing's love: policy driven.
Core view: (1): from the end of Q4 policy to the end of Q1 market, the real estate chain can be more optimistic. The 5-year LPR has been lowered for the first time since April 2020, and the positive signal is obvious. At present, real estate sales are in the doldrums and new land acquisition projects are sluggish, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. We judge that we are expected to see marginal improvements in front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. In the second half of 2021, the "low temperature" of the real estate market was mainly due to the delay of mortgage loans for home buyers, the tightening of development loans for developers, and the debt default of top real estate developers. After the policy digestion from September to December, the demand side and supply side were significantly "warmed up". For example, according to the financial Associated Press, the lending speed of second-hand housing loans in Beijing was significantly accelerated in the first half of January, Some banks have digested the housing loans that could not be released by the end of 2021. We believe that the real estate chain can be more optimistic, and the valuation directly reflects the expectation, which will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At present, the second-line leaders can be more optimistic, the performance repair flexibility is greater, and the sustainability of the first-line leaders is stronger. First, the external environment of the real estate chain will be greatly improved, and second, the performance is expected to be repaired. In addition, after the baptism of the bottom, the concentration is indeed improved, and the voice of major downstream real estate developers is correspondingly weakened. Core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], elastic targets [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ].
(2) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof in reverse cycle. Infrastructure investment is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1; The central economic work conference proposed that "pipelines are obsolete and in disrepair", and it is expected to pay more attention during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Pipe network construction focuses on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ], growth + cycle [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elastic focus [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], robust + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ].
(3) continue to be optimistic about the TOC retail model and pay attention to the value of high-quality operation and business model. At the same time, the edge of hardbound housing is weakening, the impact of rigid demand housing is small, and the retail environment is relatively improved. Focus on [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit, concentric circle strategy and speed-up, and focus on [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] of C + small B.
(4) new materials throughout the year: carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass, medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
(5) Hong Kong stock valuation restoration: key targets include [China Liansu] [China building materials].
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
