Since the beginning of the year, the sector has slightly lagged behind the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index fell by – 4.32%, the gem index fell by – 2.72%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.11%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lagged behind the market by 4.36 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has risen by – 7.57%, the gem index by – 8.67%, the CSI 300 index by – 3.26%, the Shanghai Composite Index by – 3.22%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lags behind the market by 4.35 percentage points.
Event: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Wanhua Penglai Co., Ltd. was established to develop a green chemical industrial park. Enterprise investigation shows that on January 17, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Penglai) Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan. The company is jointly held by Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and Ningbo Zhongtao.
Comments:
1) build 900000 tons of propylene and downstream projects, with obvious location advantages in front of port and back of plant. According to Penglai municipal government, Wanhua Penglai phase I project covers an area of about 2.2 square kilometers with a total investment of 21 billion yuan. It mainly constructs 900000 tons of propylene and downstream related projects, and the benefit is expected to reach the post production output value of 23 billion yuan. According to our analysis, Wanhua Penglai is expected to build another set of PDH device and build Wanhua Penglai high-end new material low-carbon industrial park. Penglai Beigou has obvious location advantages. The former port and the latter factory facilitate the transportation of raw materials and products, further expand the production scale of Wanhua C3 industrial chain, and promote the transformation and upgrading of polyolefin industrial chain.
2) the petrochemical sector aims at high-end and further improves its market competitiveness. In the 21st year, the ethylene phase I unit was put into operation, the volume and price of petrochemical products rose simultaneously, and the profitability of the sector increased significantly. The new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control. We analyze that the second phase of ethylene is expected to accelerate. Poe products have excellent performance. We expect that in 2025, China’s Poe demand is expected to exceed 900000 tons, and Wanhua’s sales volume is expected to reach 200000 tons. The demand for POE photovoltaic materials is growing rapidly. At the same time, we analyze that Poe is expected to drive the coordinated development of PP and other polyolefins and enhance the competitiveness of Wanhua Poe modified PP and other high-end polyolefin industries.
Product prices rose and fell with each other: the products with the highest price increase include 107 glue (Xin’an chemical) (22.09%), vitamin B5 (calcium pantothenate, 98%) (19.64%), octanol (13.62%), maleic anhydride (12.98%) and butyl acrylate (12.59%).
The products with the highest price decline include isobutyraldehyde (- 22.74%), dichloromethane (- 10.81%), Henry hub Futures (- 8.19%), butadiene (- 6.56%) and ethylene oxide (- 5.48%).
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
