Zhou’s view: the low point is still the short-term layout point, and the contradiction is in the medium term rather than the short term
(1) new energy vehicles: the short-term divergence lies in the data of terminal sales and orders in January. From the data of the previous two weeks, there is a large decline month on month compared with December, which has affected the investment sentiment to a certain extent. We believe that: first, it is normal to have a large decline month on month in January, and the same is true in previous years. It is suggested to pay attention to the year-on-year data; Secondly, the contradiction between supply and demand in the short-term industrial chain affects the release of orders to a certain extent. The tight supply leads to the lengthening of the delivery cycle + the price rise of the terminal needs to be digested in a certain period of time; Finally, looking at the whole year, demand is not a problem, and the core still depends on the high-quality supply side. The short-term expected low point provides a better layout point, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be significantly alleviated from February to March, and the growth of the main industrial chain will be straightened out; The core of the contradiction lies in the decline of growth rate and the exposure of hidden problems after the release of the supply side of the medium cycle, and there will be repeated adjustments in the later stage of the industry. We believe that the investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, and pay attention to the three directions we put forward in the coming year: (a) core growth: high barriers, link leaders, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other front-line leaders benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, etc., Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: the clean energy industry chain also faces short-term layout points. The short-term contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be significantly alleviated from February to March, and the growth of the main industry chain will be straightened out; Demand is not the core of the contradiction. The focus of the contradiction lies in the reconstruction of the competition pattern after the full release of the supply side of the medium cycle; We believe that the photovoltaic investment stage also enters the third stage (supply release and supply-demand rebalancing stage), and the industrial chain enters the price decline cycle; The positive feedback of downstream demand will be gradually generated during the price decline cycle, which is expected to be more obvious after the Spring Festival. We are optimistic about the high growth of demand in 2022, mainly about investment opportunities in three aspects: (a) we are optimistic about the opportunities of power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , forest energy, Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) and other benefits; (b) Optimistic about the terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and other benefits; (c) In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the auxiliary material industrial chain with good supply and demand, the innovation at the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) and so on.
Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) comments: the performance is in line with expectations, and the growth certainty of ternary leader is strong
Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) issued a performance forecast, and the performance met expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1-1.05 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 159.81% – 172.80% over the same period in 2020. It is estimated that the net profit after deduction is 740-790 million yuan, and the corresponding net profit in the single quarter after deduction is 1.15/1.76/2.23/226-276 million yuan respectively.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: in 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) lithium batteries and lithium separators continued to maintain rapid growth, and the national development and Reform Commission further strengthened the charging guarantee capacity of electric vehicles
New energy vehicle company: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2.66 billion yuan to 2.76 billion yuan
Photovoltaic industry level: the national energy administration promotes the repurchase of new energy supporting self built projects
At the level of photovoltaic companies: the 7 billion yuan “Longji bond issuance” opened priority placement and online subscription on January 5
At the level of wind energy industry: the bid winning publicity of Jiangsu 2.65 million KW offshore wind power project, and the three enterprise consortia won the bid
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
