Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : channel feedback is now basically completed, and the winery requires the Moutai to be cleared at the end of January, and no notice is made for the payment in February. The dealer has not signed a contract yet, which is slightly slower than that in previous years. We expect that there may be changes in the marketing and price system in the future. Maotai 1935 press conference: this week we attended the Maotai 1935 press conference. Chairman Ding's speech mainly emphasized three points: first, the profound history since he won the special prize in 19 Second, the craft is inherited from Maotai liquor and the quality is guaranteed; The third is the Chinese red color matching, focusing on the needs of holidays and wedding banquets. In terms of output: the delivery volume varies from region to region. About 50 pieces of each series of wine dealer in Shanghai were delivered in the first batch, and slightly less in other regions. Considering the price control and capacity constraints, we expect that Maotai will not deliver goods every month in 1935. The delivery volume of Maotai in 1935 should be between 1000-1500 tons in 2022, and then gradually increase the volume every year. It is expected that the price and sales volume will have little impact on the competitive products at the price of 1000 yuan in the short term. Quality: Maotai 1935 combines the characteristics of Maotai liquor producing area and base liquor of series liquor producing areas. The smell is close to Feitian, the aroma of the wine is rich and balanced, the taste is slightly thinner than Feitian, and the overall quality is higher than that of Zunyi 1935. Price performance: Maotai delivered goods in batches after the first batch of payment in 1935. At present, some channels are out of stock, resulting in the rapid rise of the wholesale price to 1600-1700 yuan. It is expected that it will drop after the subsequent supply is sufficient. The price difference between full container and bulk bottle Feitian narrowed, and the wholesale price of full container Feitian decreased slightly from 50 to 3180 yuan around the week. Bulk bottle Feitian was relatively stable. It was sold in full container Feitian in 2022, and the channel dynamic sales remained strong. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : at present, the delivery has been completed for about 2 months and the inventory is 1.5 months. The wholesale price of puwu is stable at about 965 and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is stable at about 1800. It is expected that the dynamic sales of the Spring Festival is better than that of last year. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : some channels reported that the contracted volume in 2022 increased by more than 20% compared with that in 2021. At present, the delivery has been completed for about 2 months. The bid price is stable at 920-930 yuan. We expect that after the low-cost inventory is cleared, the bid price will have further upward space. Willing: after Fuxing became the owner, it has obvious ability to attract investment and brand promotion. New big merchants have strong distribution willingness and high retention. The channel profit is higher than Jiannanchun with the same price band, and there are still many blank areas that have not been developed. According to the channel feedback, the payment progress in 2022 is smooth, and the first quarter is expected to start well. Our view: after the recent adjustment of Baijiu sector, the value of high-end liquor has dropped to a low level. We recommend Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , and the Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) with the lowest recommended PEG and lower Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) .
Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) : the revenue is stable and the profit performance is slightly higher than expected. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of 2.78 billion yuan - 2.85 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 53.6% - 57.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 275-295 million yuan, an increase of 18.5% - 27.15% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 260 million yuan to 280 million yuan, with an increase of 15.1% - 24.0%. After adding back 35 million yuan of excess performance reward expenses and amortization expenses of share based payment, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 310-330 million yuan, an increase of 33.57% - 42.18% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 295-315 million, an increase of 30.63% - 39.48% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 789-989 million yuan, an increase of 29.44% - 62.27% at the same time; Excluding the above effects, the deducted non net profit was 89-109 million yuan, an increase of 23.15% - 50.85% at the same time. Revenue maintained rapid growth, and the growth of frozen baking track showed toughness. In the whole year of 21 years, the company's frozen baking business maintained rapid growth, mainly due to the rapid growth of key customer Sam, and the rapid volume of single products such as cassava and frozen cake; At the same time, bakeries and catering channels still achieved steady growth under the condition of limited production capacity. The profit level slightly exceeded the market expectation. We believe that it is related to the contribution of doughnuts and other high gross margin products to the income after the company's Henan plant was put into operation. Looking forward to 2022, other customers in bakery channel, catering channel and supermarket channel are expected to maintain rapid growth after Henan factory releases production capacity.
Beer: the output will pick up in 2021, and we will continue to pay attention to the increase of average price. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the national beer output in 2021 was 35.624 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, an increase of - 1.8% compared with 2019. Although the epidemic situation showed a normalization trend in 2021, especially in the second half of the year, the output of the beer industry maintained a good recovery trend. In December 2021, the output of beer industry was 2.358 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, an increase of - 2.5% compared with the same period in 2019, which was mainly affected by the outbreaks in Shaanxi, Henan and other places. From the marginal point of view, the impact of the repeated epidemic on the total amount of the beer industry continues to weaken. The scene of home consumption of beer develops rapidly after the epidemic, and the total amount of the beer industry is expected to stabilize or even continue to recover in the future. At the same time, we continue to emphasize that the promotion of average price to promote the release of profit elasticity is still the core investment logic of the beer sector. In 2022, through structural upgrading + high-end acceleration + direct price increase, the beer industry is expected to achieve strong ASP growth. It is suggested to actively pay attention to sector opportunities. According to the report of beer board, Wusu Beer issued a price adjustment letter. Due to the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials, labor and transportation, which led to the continuous increase in costs, it decided to increase the price of 620ml red Wusu products from February 1, 2022. At the same time, recently Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Budweiser InBev also launched beer products with a price of 1000 yuan after China Resources snowflake, further leading the industry to develop in the direction of high quality and upgrading.
Dairy products: Jindian, anmushi and Chunzhen continue to promote innovation, and the liquid milk track has grown steadily under the high-quality development. According to the food industry news, Mengniu normal temperature sour milk brand Chunzhen launched a strategic new product - greedy yogurt, adding Tiao sugar, sea salt almond kernel, excellent crisp milk, freeze-dried red heart pitaya Ding, etc. Yili Normal Temperature sour milk brand amuxi launched 0 sucrose "amx Dandong strawberry yogurt" new product, containing 10% strawberry jam; Jindian, a brand of white milk, launched "a new generation of" ultra-6 "ultrafiltration milk". The product is filtered by ultrafiltration process. After 0.2 seconds of ultra instantaneous heating and sterilization, it is concentrated with multiple times of raw milk to produce high times of protein milk. The calcium content per 100ml is 180mg and the fat content is 1.5g. We believe that the demand for white milk is rigid in the liquid milk track. Ultrafiltration milk has richer nutrition and longer shelf life than ordinary pasteurized milk. Such product iteration and upgrading can further meet consumers' demand for health and high nutrition. Yogurt has the attributes of dairy products and beverages, so leading enterprises can continue to promote new products to prolong the product life cycle and arouse consumers' freshness. The common high-quality development of white milk and yogurt enables the liquid milk industry to continue to grow steadily under a large volume.
China flying crane: the new product Zhuo Rui is listed to enrich the product matrix of xingfeifan. According to the news of Securities Daily, on January 20, at the fresh standard upgrade of Feihe milk powder and the launch conference of xingfeifan zhuorei, Feihe officially released a new product - xingfeifan zhuorei. This is the "third member" of the xingfeifan family after the classic xingfeifan and xingfeifan A2. The newly upgraded xingfeifan zhuorei took the lead in adding "lactoferrin + 10x probiotics", which is the first application of Feihe fresh infant formula standard system after upgrading.
We believe that the listing of Zhuo Rui is an important embodiment of the "1 + n" matrix created by xingfeifan family. Under the background of longer launch time and larger volume of xingfeifan, the launch of new items can prolong the life cycle of items and contribute to the increment. At the same time, it can enrich the price system of products, protect channel profits, and help Feihe steadily increase its share in the infant powder industry, Stabilize the leading position. At the same time, the layout of adult milk powder (Aiben Series) opens the second growth curve.
Recommended combination in January: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The combination logic has not been changed, so we continue to maintain the combination recommended last month. In January 2022, the recommended portfolio and its rise and fall were Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (- 15.54%), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (- 11.96%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (- 6.70%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 3.17%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (- 2.43%) respectively, and the portfolio yield was - 7.94%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.22%, 4.72% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
Investment strategy: the layout is at the right time. Our main recommendation lines mainly focus on the following directions: (1) strong HENGQIANG's steady income companies: recommend Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China Resources beer, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) and other sub industry leaders; (2) high growth companies with fast expansion in the industry: recommend prefabricated vegetables, quick frozen industry, sub high end Baijiu, cheese industry, Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , etc. (3) Companies with cycle reversal and dilemma reversal: epidemic cycle recovery, recommended Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Haidilao, leader of oil enterprises, leader of meat products, etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Yihai International; It is expected to accelerate after adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Zhou Heiya. For detailed recommendation logic, see strategy for 2022: price recovery is expected to accelerate the release of performance.
Risk tips: the risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, the risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
