Securities: the average daily turnover of the market this week increased by 20 billion to 1.1 trillion month on month; The balance of the two financial institutions (January 20) continued to fall to 1795.8 billion, falling below 1.8 trillion for the first time in nearly half a year. According to the data of China securities registration, 1373800 new investors were added in December 2021, an increase of 2.7% month on month and a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year. During the week, there were both positive and negative information. Among them, the interest rate cut on schedule became the most favorable. The interest rates of MLF, LPR and SLF were successively reduced. In particular, all term interest rates of SLF were down, which had the most direct impact on the liquidity of the capital market and was good for the securities sector; In addition, at the 2022 working meeting held by the CSRC in the middle of the week, chairman Yi proposed to coordinate the “stability” and “progress”. While stabilizing the market, policies and expectations, he also reflected the “progress” in reform, opening up and serving the high-quality development of the real economy, which further clarified the policy main line of the comprehensive registration system, The “three stabilities” are also expected to boost investor confidence by reducing market fluctuations, which will benefit the sector. However, it should be noted that in the middle of the week, the Margin Trading Committee of China Securities Association issued the suggestions on risk management and credit impairment measurement of margin trading and securities lending to the industry, which refined and clarified a number of regulatory indicators and released strict regulatory signals. At the same time, it was suggested that the credit impairment loss of contracts without impairment should be accrued at the ratio of 0.05% – 1.5%, which could not be ignored, The provision for impairment will inevitably affect profits, suppress the enthusiasm of securities companies to participate in the two financial services to a certain extent, or make securities companies increase the screening and management of two financial customers and targets, which will have a negative impact on the volume of two financial services and customer activity. In addition, since the beginning of the year, the market volatility has increased, the confidence of investors has been impacted, and the enthusiasm of customers to participate in the two financial services is bound to be affected. Based on the above factors, the two financial services will face two-way suppression at the supply side and the demand side, or there will be continuous negative feedback with the market, and the medium-term impact is not clear. To sum up, the interest rate cut is directly beneficial to the market and securities sector, but the sustainability of the sector market still needs to be catalyzed by the market.
Insurance: listed insurance companies disclosed the original premium income data in December, and the overall performance of property insurance continued to be better than that of life insurance. CPIC life insurance and New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) made a good start. In December, the original premium mom increased by 41.9% and 20.4%, driving the growth rate of original premium yoy of CPIC life insurance back to positive (0.6%), Xinhua yoy increased by 2.5%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , PICC Life Insurance and Taiping Life insurance yoy increased by 1.2%, 3.3% and 3.4% respectively, and Ping An Life Insurance yoy increased by – 4.1%. In terms of new business, according to the original premium standard, Ping An Life Insurance decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, significantly narrower than that in 2020 (- 15.3%); PICC Life Insurance decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, basically the same as that in 2020 (- 0.5%). In terms of property insurance, mom growth rates of PICC Property Insurance and Ping An Property Insurance in December were the highest in the whole year, reaching 30.4% and 14.2% respectively, yoy growth rates were 3.8% and – 5.5% respectively, and yoy growth rates of CPIC property insurance and Taiping property insurance were 3.4% and – 2.1% respectively. We believe that considering the implementation of the new regulations of the second generation and the repeated epidemic, and the massive loss of agents, it is still difficult for insurance enterprises to expand their business; In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continues to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, so it is too early to judge the inflection point of the industry. At present, the lengthening of the investment cycle of the subject matter of insurance is a high probability event. In 2022, we propose to continue to focus on the impact of strong regulatory policies on the business development of insurance enterprises. It is expected that the adjustment pressure at both ends of the asset burden of insurance enterprises will still exist, and the recovery of automobile insurance will precede that of life insurance.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
