Key investment points:
Regulatory dynamics: the CSRC held a 2022 system work meeting and put forward seven work tasks. First, adhere to the principle of stability and earnestly maintain the steady and healthy development of the capital market. Strengthen macro research and judgment and policy coordination, and improve the accountability system for risk prevention, early warning and disposal. Steadily promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and promote the overall balance and coordinated development of investment and financing. Second, with the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system as the main line, we will further promote the reform of the capital market. Further improve the registration system arrangement with information disclosure as the core, highlight the top priority of the main board reform, and comprehensively improve the multi-level market system. Third, highlight “steady growth” and constantly improve the high-quality development capacity of the service economy. Fourth, make overall plans for opening-up and security, and unswervingly promote institutional opening-up. Create conditions to promote greater progress in China US audit and regulatory cooperation, and accelerate the implementation of regulatory systems and policies for overseas listing of enterprises. Fifth, promote the standardized and healthy development of capital and steadily promote the resolution and disposal of risks in key areas. Adhere to the strict supervision of financing and M & A activities in specific sensitive fields, and set up a “traffic light” for capital. Steadily resolve the risk of bond default. Carry out in-depth rectification of “pseudo private placement” and “pseudo Gold Exchange”. Sixth, deepen the combination of decentralization and regulation and accelerate the transformation of supervision. Scientifically grasp the balance between “release” and “management”, and strengthen the supervision during and after the event. Seventh, continue to strengthen the legal supply of the capital market and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors. We will promote legislation on futures and derivatives laws and regulations on the supervision of listed companies.
Industry data: (1) Brokerage: since 2022, the turnover has exceeded trillion yuan in 13 trading days, with an average daily turnover of 1.10 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 1.85%. (2) Self operated: CSI 300 index and gem index are 1.11%%, – 2.72% respectively. (3) Credit: as of January 20, the balance of the two financial institutions was 1.80 trillion yuan, up + 7% from the beginning of the year. Among them, the balance of financing was 1.69 trillion yuan, up + 10% from the beginning of the year, and the balance of securities lending was 107.297 billion yuan, down – 25% from the beginning of the year. (4) Investment banking: according to the statistics of the listing date, the total scale of equity financing last week was 26.029 billion yuan, down – 67% month on month. Among them, IPO raised 10.967 billion yuan and additional issuance raised 11.453 billion yuan. Performance data: the securities companies that disclosed the performance express or performance forecast closed up year-on-year, and the performance growth rate was generally higher than 20%.
Investment suggestions:
At the current time point, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to securities companies. First, the performance of listed securities companies was better than expected and maintained a relatively high growth rate. Since this year, the secondary market has been active in investment and trading, and the trillion transaction scale has become the norm. In addition, the scale of two financing has also remained high, which is good for brokerage business. Second, the policy orientation is good. The CSRC puts forward seven major tasks, including the reform of the main board registration system, the entry of long-term funds into the market, the supervision of overseas listing, and the legislation of futures and derivatives. The reform of various basic systems is deepened and the business environment is continuously improved. Third, loose liquidity further promoted trading activity, which was good for the brokerage sector as a whole. Focusing on the business layout of asset light advantage is our main suggested direction at the current time point. The deepening reform of the capital market supports macroeconomic transformation and serves the national strategic objectives. At the same time, the securities industry also fully benefits from the broad business opportunities contained in the real economy. Asset light business has relatively low risk and little restriction on capital, which helps to smooth performance fluctuations and is more favored by the market in valuation. The ceiling of wealth management business and institutional business is high, and the business space is broader. First, based on the vision of common prosperity, reaffirm the blue ocean field of wealth management business and pay attention to the securities companies that first release the Bureau in the big wealth management industrial chain. Second, based on the deepening trend of investor institutionalization, select securities companies with strong institutional service ability and high proportion of institutional business. Third, it is suggested to pay attention to the head securities companies, take the lead in compliance risk control, and the pilot of new business occupies the first mover advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China stock market news, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , etc.
Risk tips:
The secondary market fell sharply; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; The capital market reform was not as expected.
