I. focus of this week — Interpretation of key points of JPM Conference
From January 10 to 13, the 40th JPMorgan Chase Annual Conference on health care was held online in the United States. As one of the largest and most informative investment events in the health care industry, it reflects the market flow trend of the global health care industry and guides the future development and investment direction. In this JMP conference, the future competition of new technologies and new drug forms represented by gene cell therapy has become the key topic of the conference. This week, we will interpret the main points of the conference in detail through 35 charts, overview the development trend of global biomedicine, and get a glimpse of the outstanding performance of Chinese representative enterprises in the international arena.
A glimpse of the whole Leopard: overview of the development trend of the biomedical industry: the influence of covid-19 gradually subsides, and the industry focuses on diversification. From the perspective of drug categories, small molecules account for more than 50%. Macromolecules have more classification, cell, protein, gene therapy and other directions. There is also a broader application space in the future. From the clinical stage, preclinical accounts for the highest proportion, and companies with technology platforms in the early stage are more willing to participate. In terms of disease, the field of tumor ranks first, followed by the fields of autoimmunity, nerve and metabolism and infection. In terms of target distribution, the leading position is occupied by emerging targets such as ASBT and ripk1, and PD-1 is still involved in many projects.
Chinese figure on the international stage: more than 40 Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises participated in this conference. We paid close attention to the pace of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises going to sea by briefly sorting out the internationalization strategies of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises represented by Cinda biology, Baiji Shenzhou and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) and the important milestones expected to be announced in the next year.
New frontier technology: the prelude to the era of gene cell therapy: cell and gene therapy are the key areas of many pharmaceutical enterprises in this conference, and the related technologies have a certain maturity. Intellia’s first CRISPR / cas9 intravenous therapy ntla-2001 accelerated progress; Pfizer cooperated with beam to develop new in vivo base editing therapy with us $1.35 billion; Bayer and mammoth jointly developed the next generation of in vivo gene editing therapy; Vertex promotes the research and development of multiple treatment modes; BMS cooperates with century to develop IPSC derived NK / T cell therapy; Moderna cooperates with Carisma to explore car-m therapy; BioNTech7. $900 million cooperation with crescendo to expand the layout of antibody and cell therapy; Takeda’s acquisition of adaptate and re layout γδ T cell therapy; SANA’s two cooperation continue to explore the field of car; Allogene cooperates with anti to develop the next generation ready to use car-t.
New molecular types: innovative molecules provide new ideas for disease treatment: gritstone personalized new antigen vaccine granite announced new progress; Pfizer cooperates with drenbio to promote the research and development of myeloid cell recruitment double antibody; Amgen cooperates with Arrakis to develop innovative small molecule RNA degradation agents.
II. Market review of innovative medicine stocks in the pharmaceutical sector:
This week Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Jiangsu Aidea Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688488) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) ranked the top 5 in the rise and fall of Shanghai and Shenzhen pharmaceutical innovative drugs. The last five are Hunan Nucien Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688189) , Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co.Ltd(688687) , Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) – u, Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Luoxin Pharmaceuticals Group Stock Co.Ltd(002793) .
The top 5 gainers and losers in the pharmaceutical innovative drug sector of Hong Kong stocks this week are Geli pharmaceutical-b, Peijia medical-b, Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) pharmaceutical, stone Pharmaceutical Group, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) . The last five are Yunding xinyao-b, Rongchang biology-b, Deqi medicine-b, kangfang biology-b and nuocheng jianhua-b.
III. medium and long term perspective of innovative pharmaceutical industry:
In recent years, with the influx of capital stimulated by policies, China has ushered in a gale of innovation. China’s innovation market has strong policy attributes. On October 8, 2017, the two offices jointly issued the opinions on deepening the reform of the review and approval system and encouraging the innovation of drugs and medical devices, which opened the first wave of innovation. With the revision of the administrative measures for drug registration, drug negotiation and the introduction of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of medical insurance, the top-level design of the policy has completely solved the problem of insufficient innovation power caused by Limited R & D resources, non-standard Review & slow progress, low bidding efficiency, high difficulty in admission and difficult connection of medical insurance in history. Under the stimulation of Programmatic Policies, combined with the promotion of the science and innovation board and the registration system in recent years, the capital of innovative medicine racetrack swarmed, and the financing of innovative medicine enterprises accelerated, which also led China’s innovative medicine investment into the era of gale mouth. Driven by a good policy environment and capital, China’s innovation rise has accelerated. Domestic innovative drugs have entered the harvest period one after another, and more heavy innovative products will be approved and listed in China in the next few years.
What cannot be ignored is that the time window for “general innovation” given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter, the cost control of medical insurance is becoming stricter, and the track is becoming more and more crowded. We have slowly entered the moment of “selected high-quality innovation”. At present, the homogenization of innovative drug research and development in China is more serious, and the homogenization of targeted drugs is the most serious. The era that innovative drugs are listed as blockbusters is slowly passing, and the time window period of “general innovation” given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter. We believe that China’s innovative drug market has slowly entered the moment of “selected high-quality innovation” from “general innovation”. In the future, the homogenization competition of McAb popular targets will continue to be intense, and the homogenized products will gradually lose their competitiveness. New technologies, scarce technology platforms, differentiated treatment fields and innovative drug delivery methods may bring a better competitive pattern to enterprises, and companies with technology precipitation are expected to stand out.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry was lower than expected.
