Main points:
We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and have conquered cities and occupied land in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to the statistics of npcpi, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to go through three stages in the context of carbon neutrality in the next 40 years:
The first stage is to reach the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that high energy consuming products or industries do not mean that there is no development, but will give priority to reaching the peak, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
In the second stage, the future competition will be downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials of China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center has increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises may be invested in the field of downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continue to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face disruptive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decline of the cost of bio based materials, the rise of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes), and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recycling technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
On January 18, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration of market supervision, the State Administration of Taxation The administrative bureau of the CPC Central Committee, together with relevant departments, has studied and formulated the implementation plan for promoting green consumption. The scheme puts forward the green consumption scheme of food, clothing, housing, transportation, culture and tourism, green electricity and public institutions, marking the introduction of the top-level design scheme for consumption in major fields such as food, clothing, housing and transportation at the level of use. Among them, those related to chemical industry include:
(1) encourage green clothing consumption. Promote the application of equipment and technologies such as green fiber preparation, high-efficiency and energy-saving printing and dyeing, and recycling of waste fibers, improve the proportion of green fibers such as recycled chemical fibers, and provide more clothes that meet the requirements of green and low-carbon. Promote all kinds of organs, enterprises and institutions, schools and other institutions to purchase more uniforms and school uniforms with green and low-carbon certification marks. Advocate rational consumption of consumers and purchase clothes reasonably and moderately according to actual needs. Regulate the public welfare donation of used clothes, and encourage enterprises and residents to donate appropriate used clothes to needy people through charitable organizations according to law. Encourage units, communities and clothing stores to reasonably arrange old clothing recycling points and strengthen reuse. Support the construction of demonstration bases for the comprehensive utilization of waste textiles and clothing.
(2) actively promote green residential consumption. Accelerate the development of green construction. Promote the large-scale development of green buildings and low-carbon buildings, and incorporate the requirements of energy conservation and environmental protection into the transformation of old residential areas. We will promote the energy-saving transformation of rural housing and the construction of green rural housing. Promote the construction and transformation of clean heating facilities according to local conditions. Comprehensively promote green and low-carbon building materials and promote the recycling of building materials. We will continue to promote clean heating in rural areas, improve the electrification level of rural energy consumption, and accelerate the application of biomass energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other renewable energy in rural life.
(3) vigorously develop green transportation consumption. Vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually eliminate restrictions on the purchase of new energy vehicles in various regions, promote the implementation of supporting policies such as free travel and right of way, strengthen the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging and changing electricity, new energy storage and hydrogenation, and actively promote the development of vehicle and marine LNG. Promote the pilot application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode, and orderly carry out the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles. We will further carry out new energy vehicles to the countryside, encourage automobile enterprises to develop and promote new energy vehicles that meet the travel needs of rural residents, are of high quality, low price, advanced and applicable, and promote the improvement of rural operation and maintenance service system. Reasonably guide consumers to buy lightweight, miniaturized and low emission passenger cars. We will vigorously promote the electrification of vehicles in the public sector and increase the proportion of new energy vehicles in urban public transport, leasing (including online car Hailing), environmental sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and public affairs of Party and government organs. We will deepen the construction of public transport cities, create an efficient, connected, fast and comfortable public transport service system, and further improve the proportion of urban public bus, electric vehicle and rail transit. Encourage the construction of pedestrian friendly cities and strengthen the construction of urban slow traffic systems such as pedestrian footpaths and bicycle lanes. Encourage the standardized development of shared bicycles.
(4) further stimulate the green power consumption potential of the whole society. We will ensure that new renewable energy and raw material energy are not included in the total energy consumption control requirements, and comprehensively promote green power trading and green certificate trading. Guide users to sign green power trading contracts and list them separately in medium and long-term trading contracts. Strengthen the rigid constraints on the use of green power by high energy consuming enterprises, and all localities can formulate the minimum proportion of green power in the power consumption of high energy consuming enterprises according to the actual situation. Strengthen the connection with carbon emission trading, and study the feasibility of deducting the carbon emissions related to green power in emission accounting in combination with the revision and improvement of the technical specifications of accounting reports of relevant industries in the national carbon market. We will continue to promote the innovative development of smart photovoltaic, vigorously promote the application of building photovoltaic, and accelerate the proportion of residents’ green power consumption.
(5) promote the application of advanced green and low-carbon technologies. Guide enterprises to improve the level of green innovation, actively develop and introduce advanced and applicable green low-carbon technologies, and promote the production and use of products with low volatile organic matter content. Strengthen the R & D, promotion, transformation and application of low-carbon, zero carbon and negative carbon technologies, intelligent technologies and digital technologies, and improve the intelligent level and operation efficiency in catering, housing, transportation, logistics and commodity production.
Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) in reply to the inquiry, Shanxi bio amyl diamine and polyamide projects are progressing smoothly and are expected to be completed in 2023
The total investment of bio glutamine and polyamide projects of the company located in Shanxi synthetic biological industry ecological park is 13.838 billion yuan, including 4.6 billion yuan of registered capital and 9.238 billion yuan of construction capital. Up to now, the company and Shanxi industrial group have paid in 1.496 billion yuan and 2.288 billion yuan respectively, totaling 3.784 billion yuan. After the change of the raised investment project, the raised investment of 1.21 billion yuan will be injected into Taiyuan materials company. As of January 11, 2022, 464 million yuan has been actually invested in the project. At present, the company is negotiating with large state-owned commercial banks, national joint-stock commercial banks and local banks in Shanxi on project loans in an orderly manner as planned. All banks are making smooth progress in business adjustment, and will continue to follow up the progress of approval in the follow-up. The project is expected to be completed in 2023.
Risk tips
Policy disturbance; Technology diffusion; Breakthroughs in new technologies; Global intellectual property disputes; Global trade disputes; The tightening of carbon emissions brings the risk of catching up with production capacity; Risk of sharp decline in oil prices; The risk of a sharp economic downturn.
