This week (2022.1.17-2022.1.21), the building materials sector (SW) rose 2.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, and the excess return was 2.52%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -874 million yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
At present, the attitude of steady growth is clear. This week, the national development and Reform Commission press conference continued to say that it is appropriate to carry out infrastructure investment in advance, accelerate the promotion of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. The follow-up steady growth landing policy and promotion intensity are expected to be further enhanced, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. In the short-term off-season, the terminal demand is still weak, but with the implementation of medium-term structural wide credit, the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. Under the “double carbon” target, the supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectation and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement and consumer building materials are recommended.
1. Cement sector: the expectation of broad credit and stable growth continues to rise, and the sector is expected to start a boom and valuation upward cycle. The high-frequency shipment data reflects that the short-term terminal demand has not been improved in a trend, but the industry supply is still subject to certain constraints under the dual carbon policy, and the price is expected to be mainly stable. The medium-term broad credit growth is expected to rise steadily. With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. The issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated in the first half of the year, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the catalysis of macro policies and the verification of the stabilization and repair of start-up demand in spring. The recommended performance is highly deterministic. There are Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with bright spots in the extension of the medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration of northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: under the short-term weak demand, the price has dropped and the inventory has rebounded. In the follow-up, we need to continue to observe the toughness of demand. After the sharp drop in the price in the early stage, the social inventory has been at a very low level, and the expectation of downward price has also eased; The rapid decline in prices has worsened the profits of some production lines to a lower level, which is expected to accelerate their cold repair process and bring the expectation of improving the margin of supply and demand. The sustainability of subsequent price stabilization and recovery needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. From a medium-term perspective, the glass supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the boom center of the industry is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (the extension of industrial chains such as deep processing, electronics, medicine and photovoltaic glass is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), CSG a (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. The glass fiber sector, the global economic boom, supply chain and other factors support the export demand to maintain a high level, superimposed with supply release constraints and other factors, the short-term tight balance between supply and demand is difficult to break quickly. Under the double carbon target, the installed capacity of wind power in the medium term increased significantly compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The unit consumption and standard of glass fiber increased under the trend of superimposing large blades, which is expected to boost the medium and long-term demand. We judge that the high boom of medium and high-end categories is sustainable. After the preliminary adjustment, the relative valuation of the sector has gradually become cost-effective. If the prosperity of downstream industries is catalyzed and the superimposed profit elasticity is realized beyond expectations, the sector is expected to usher in repair. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (the 14th five year plan is established, and the sharing of excess profits promotes high-quality development), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
In terms of consumption of building materials, according to the short-term real estate data, the new construction and sales remain weak, and the completion remains resilient. In the follow-up, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the pressure on the cost side is expected to be relieved with the price transmission, product structure adjustment and the decline of raw material prices; At the valuation level, most of the objects of consumer building materials have been in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of the policy. Previously, the central economic work conference maintained the expression of “housing without speculation”, and also proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. In terms of policy, it is expected that all localities will implement policies according to the city. It is expected that the purchase restriction Policies such as loan restrictions will be relaxed accordingly; At the same time, it is proposed to “promote the construction of indemnificatory housing”. It is expected that the construction of indemnificatory housing in the future is expected to accelerate. Under the tone of maintaining stability, the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing, and pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; From the perspective of the medium and long-term development trend of the industry, we are still optimistic about the share improvement and growth space of high-quality subdivision leaders. From the perspective of further development space and cash flow balance, the medium and long-term return to a reasonable scale of the real estate market, in addition to the fast concentrated large B project market, the old scattered small B project market provides a more long-term source of share improvement. In the medium and long term, we believe that quality growth is still the most important quality. In the next few years, under the pressure of liquidity tightening and three red lines, how to alleviate the contradiction between cash flow and income growth; Under the pressure of the gradual blurring of industry boundaries and the continuous migration of customer concerns, how to improve the long-term competitiveness of business models is an important proposition faced by enterprises:
1) a growing leader in engineering building materials, especially the company that has established a small b customer development and multi category sales system in the sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range. It is recommended to recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) , etc.
2) the export chain still maintains a high outlook. Previously, the export enterprises were affected by the rising cost of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, the profitability was under pressure, and the stock price generally corrected. With the weakening of price transmission, raw material fluctuations and the easing of shipping, it is expected to enter the profit recovery period. It is suggested to pay attention to the PVC floor leader Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) with strong demand and continuous penetration of categories, And Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) with high external demand and bright demand in downstream segments.
3) recommend Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) for revaluation varieties with stable profits and high cash flow.
[weekly data of industry segments]
1. The national cement market price this week was – 0.3% month on week. The price reduction areas mainly include Hunan, Chongqing, Yunnan and some parts of Jiangsu, with a week on week ratio of – 20-30 yuan / ton. In mid and late January, affected by off-season factors, China’s cement market demand continued to shrink, with only 30-40% of enterprise shipments left. Cement prices continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The market will enter the closed stage next week.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 549 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 91 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 529 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 6 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin is 509 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of – 3 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 11 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 10 yuan / ton. The cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 52.9%, with a week on week ratio of + 2%; The cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 56.8%, unchanged from last week; The inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 60.6%, unchanged from last week; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 60.5%, unchanged from last week.
2. Glass: the average price of the original float white glass in China this week was 2065.9 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of + 0.9 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of – 168.4 yuan / ton. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces across the country was 35.58 million boxes, with a week-on-week ratio of – 272 boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 13.92 million boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 16 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 905000 tons. The manufacturer’s overall shipment is stable within the month, the reserved orders are acceptable, the demand for wind power supports, and the manufacturer’s intention to support the price in the short term is high. There is not much supply of individual composite yarn products. Recently, the price of glass fiber yarn of manufacturers has remained stable. The manufacturer’s external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 9100 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6400 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9700 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. At present, three electronic tank kiln lines are normally produced, with an annual output of about 65000 tons. The main products include G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the downstream demand is slightly general. After the quotation of electronic yarn G75 of the manufacturer in the early stage was reduced, the quotation has been temporarily stable recently. At present, the mainstream quotation is about 12000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China’s electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market is slightly general. Now the mainstream quotation is about 5.5 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is according to the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
