Sector market review
This week (01 / 17-01 / 21), the transportation index fell 0.23%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11%, underperformed the market by 1.34%, ranking 13 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the airport sector increased the most (7.68%), and the shipping sector decreased the most (- 6.13%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: we have made solid progress in protecting the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group and achieved positive results. In 2021, the whole process time limit of express service in key regions of China will be 57.08 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15 hours. After deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand enterprises, the overall unit price of express business in December was 9.70 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.26% month on month. In the peak season, the price of express delivery increased, and the performance of express delivery enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2-2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 1.046-1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business, the certainty of performance repair is strong, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. The stricter supervision after Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents has limited the supply of the industry, and the demand side is still growing every year. We are optimistic that the chemical logistics sector will pay attention to Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development was issued. The number of takeoff and landing sorties increased by 6.5% annually from 2019 to 2025, and the industry supply was tightened. On January 20, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development, and timely launched the action to promote inbound tourism. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines. The restriction policy is expected to be relaxed. With the superposition of fare market-oriented reform, the airline company’s long-term profit will be better. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value will be highlighted. It is recommended to actively allocate and focus on Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Air China Limited(601111) . Key industry data
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3555.24 points, up 1.87% month on month; The SCFI index was 5053.12 points, down 0.8% month on month. Dry powder: the BDI index was 1415.00 points, down 19.8% month on month; The CDFI index was 1079.01 points, down 6.22% month on month. Oil transportation: the BDTI index was 692.00 points, down 0.9% month on month; The bcti index was 551.00 points, down 7.1% month on month.
Express delivery: in December 2021, the revenue of express delivery business above designated size was 91.760 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; The express business volume was 10.248 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; The unit price of express delivery was 8.95 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%; The brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services is 80.50.
Aviation: Brent crude oil was 87.89 US dollars / barrel, up 2.13% month on month; In January 2022, the ex factory price of aviation kerosene (including tax) was 4871.00 yuan / ton, down 9.5% month on month; The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3492, down 0.29% month on month.
Railway: in December 2021, the passenger volume of railway was 165 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.57%; Railway freight volume was 424 million tons, up 4.24% year-on-year. Highway: in December 2021, the National Highway freight volume was 3.426 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%; Highway passenger volume was 376 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 38.00%. Risk statement
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
