Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to pick up and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of "healthy China", the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical and nursing ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Soochow Bank of Africa recommended sector ranking: securities, insurance, recommended stock portfolio [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) China stock market news 2021 performance express: Securities performance has maintained a high growth, waiting for further capital supplement. We believe that: ① the performance of retail securities continues to increase, and the investment scale and income performance are bright; ② On January 17, 2022, the company issued a suggestive announcement that "Dongcai Zhuan 3" may meet the redemption. We expect convertible bonds to supplement working capital and improve the comprehensive strength of securities companies; ③ The Internet financial platform is developing well and is optimistic about the new era of wealth management. 2) Listed insurance companies disclosed the premium data in December: Property Insurance continued to recover, and life insurance waited for room for repair. We believe that: ① the whole life insurance industry is under pressure, and the repair of the liability side is slow; ② Property insurance premiums increased well and continued to recover. 3) The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the measures for the supervision of IT outsourcing risks of banking and insurance institutions. We believe that: ① the background of the measures is to improve the risk control ability of information technology outsourcing and promote the steady digital transformation of banking and insurance institutions. ② Information technology outsourcing in the measures mainly refers to service providers and cooperative third-party institutions.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is less than expected; 2) Policy tightening inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
