Key investment points
The consumer market continued to operate at a low level in December, with zero social security in 2021 and + 12.5% year-on-year. In 2021, China's total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44.08 trillion yuan / + 12.5%, an increase of 7.1% over 2019 and an average growth rate of 3.9% in two years. In December 2021, China achieved a total of 4.13 trillion yuan / + 1.7%, which was lower than the market expectation (according to wind, the average year-on-year growth rate of social zero in December 2021 was 3.9%), the average growth rate in two years was 3.1%, the growth rate slowed down by 1.3pct compared with the previous month, and China's consumption continued to run at a low level in December. In terms of channels, from 2019 to 2021, the low and medium double-digit compound growth of online channels and the tortuous recovery of offline channels. 1) Online: in 2021, the online retail volume of physical goods was 10.8 trillion yuan / + 12.0%, with an average growth rate of about 13.4% in two years; The online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 24.5% / - 0.4pct of social zero, and residents' consumption continued to shift online. In December, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 99.859 million yuan / + 1.9%. In a single month, the growth of online channels was weak due to the diversion of double 11 promotion and weak terminal demand. 2) Offline: it is estimated that the offline retail sales of physical goods in the whole year is about 28.6 trillion yuan / + 12.2%, with an average growth rate of about 1.1% in two years. Among them, the offline retail sales of physical goods in December was about 2.6 trillion yuan / + 2.4%, with a chain comparison of - 1.0pct, with an average growth rate of 3.4% in two years and a chain comparison of + 1.5pct. In the short term, the epidemic in China may continue to disturb offline consumption.
By category, in 2021, the performance of mandatory categories is stable, and the performance of optional cosmetics is good. 1) The required categories continued to grow steadily in 2021, and the growth rate increased month on month in December. Grain, oil, food and daily necessities above the quota increased by + 10.8% and + 14.4% respectively in November, with an average growth of about 10.3% and 10.9% respectively in the two years; 2) Cosmetics, textile clothing, gold, silver and jewelry above the quota increased by + 2.5%, - 2.3%, - 0.2% year-on-year in December; In 2021, the retail sales of commodities above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, 10.9% year-on-year compared with the same period in 2019. Cosmetics, textiles and clothing, gold, silver and jewelry increased by 14.0%, 12.7% and 29.8% year-on-year respectively, 34.5%, 2.4% and 16.7% year-on-year compared with the same period in 2019. 3) In December, the social zero of furniture achieved about 17.6 billion yuan / - 3.1%, down from the previous month.
This week, the textile and garment sector lagged behind the market by 4.52pct, Harson Trading (China) Co.Ltd(603958) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) rose ahead. This week (01.17-01.21), SW textile and garment sector fell 3.41%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11%, and textile and garment sector lagged behind the market by 4.52pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing sector decreased by 2.41%, and SW clothing and home textile decreased by 4.02%. From the valuation level of the sector, the industry PE calculated by SW textile and garment overall method (TTM, excluding negative value) is 18.85 times, which is lower than the average value in recent one year. The top five companies in the textile and garment sector this week are: Harson Trading (China) Co.Ltd(603958) (+ 28.84%), Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) (+ 12.4%), Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (+ 9.59%), Sanmao B shares (+ 2.24%) and Huasi Holding Company Limited(002494) (+ 1.75%); The top five companies in the textile and garment sector were: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (- 13.18%), Hangzhou Nbond Nowovens Co.Ltd(603238) (- 12.85%), Xinjiang La Chapelle Fashion Co.Ltd(603157) (- 12.38%), Zhejiang Huasheng Technology Co.Ltd(605180) (- 11.06%) and Xinlong Holding (Group) Company Ltd(000955) (- 10.54%).
This week, the household goods sector lagged behind the market by 1.57pct, Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) rose higher. This week (01.17-01.21), SW household goods sector fell 0.46%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11%, and furniture sector lagged behind the market by 1.57pct. From the valuation level of the sector, the current industry PE calculated by SW household goods overall method (TTM, excluding negative value) is 25.83 times and SW furniture is 24.20 times, which is lower than the average value in recent one year. The top five companies in the furniture sector this week are: Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (+ 21.42%), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (+ 6.09%), Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (+ 3.88%), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (+ 3.24%) and Dare Power Dekor Home Co.Ltd(000910) (+ 1.23%); The furniture companies with the top five declines this week are: Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (- 12.25%), Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) (- 9.17%), Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) (- 8.97%), Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) (- 8.31%) and Fujian Yongan Forestry (Group) Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(000663) (- 8.25%).
Important industry news:
\u3000\u30001. Textile and clothing exports hit a record high in 2021. As the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO, China's economy continued to recover in 2021, and the epidemic prevention and control remained a global leader. The long-term positive fundamentals provided strong support for stabilizing foreign trade. The annual import and export volume of goods exceeded $6 trillion / + 30%. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total export of textiles and clothing in 2021 was 315.47 billion US dollars (excluding 94 chapter mattresses, sleeping bags and other bedding) / + 8.4% (in RMB + 0.9%), which continued to grow steadily on the high trade base in 2020, reaching a record high. Among them, affected by the high export base of epidemic prevention materials in 2020, China's textile export in the whole year was 145.2 billion US dollars / - 5.6% (in RMB - 12.2%), but + 22.0% compared with 2019. From the perspective of large categories of products, the export of textile yarn, fabrics and textile products other than masks (including home textiles and industrial textiles) achieved rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30% - 40%. Only the export of epidemic prevention masks showed a significant downward trend due to the decline of unit price. At the same time, supported by the rebound of overseas consumer demand and the return of some orders, the annual export of clothing was $170.26 billion / + 24.0% (in RMB + 15.6%), which was the best level since 2015 compared with before the epidemic (2019) + 16.0%. In particular, clothing exports to the US and European markets increased by about 20% - 30% year-on-year. Clothing exports to ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and other countries and regions also increased, and the scale has exceeded the pre epidemic level.
\u3000\u30002. The country's first "government procurement furniture project demand management group standard" was implemented. In January 2022, the procurement demand management guide for government procurement furniture projects jointly formulated by Zhejiang provincial government procurement Federation and Zhejiang Furniture Industry Association was officially released and implemented from February 1, 2022. By the end of November 2021, more than 200 government purchased furniture projects in Zhejiang had used the demand standard, with a total budget of more than 500 million yuan.
The guide covers seven common government procurement furniture projects: office furniture, student desks and chairs, student apartment furniture, kindergarten furniture, general education laboratory furniture, university laboratory furniture and hospital furniture. It is applicable to the demand management of government procurement furniture projects of state organs, institutions and organizations at all levels. Furniture procurement projects of state-owned enterprises can also be implemented by reference; The guide focuses on the technical requirements of furniture use function, green, environmental protection, health and safety, transforms the subjective factors of evaluation into objective factors, cancels the contents suspected of discriminating against small and medium-sized enterprises and newly established enterprises, enables large, medium-sized, small and micro suppliers to compete on the same stage, and creates a more fair business environment; Cancel a large number of certification certificates, expand the scope of application of test reports and reduce the burden for suppliers; Promote the transformation and upgrading of the furniture industry to an intensive, green, environmental friendly and low-carbon direction.
\u3000\u30003. Adidas sub brands opened stores one after another. Following Adidas Neo and Adidas terrex, Adidas brands Adidas originals, the world's first customized clover flagship store, officially opened in Chengdu ocean Swire. Adidasneo is China's main player in sports and leisure products, and its price is more close to the people. It has signed a Chinese spokesperson, including the actor Yiyang Qianxi and Di Ali Gerba, who target the group after 00. In October 2021, the first flagship store of Adidas outdoor sports brand Tanrui in China also opened in Shanghai, focusing on "environmental protection" and "community interaction". The main products in the store adopt environmental protection materials, including 100% recycled fiber, and adopt non printing and dyeing technology, which not only restores the natural color of the fabric, but also saves some water resources; In addition, the store has set up an interactive community and regularly invites influential social organizations in the circle to discuss and exchange. It is a "routine operation" to strengthen the layout of sub brands, take the route of differentiation, cut into the market segments and improve the overall competitiveness of the group. For example, Anta Group has acquired Philharmonic, desant, yamafen sports, etc; Li Ning launched the "China Li Ning" product line and "li-ning1990". In the market segment, Adidas also has to face many competitors. Take the ice and snow sports market as an example. With the arrival of the Beijing Winter Olympics, many ski brands, including Bogner, Burton and diamond, are also accelerating their occupation of the Chinese market. These brands promote brand localization through cooperation with Chinese Enterprises. In the field of high-end sports fashion, Philharmonic, Lulu lemon, particle fanaticism, "li-ning1990" and other brands have a large number of loyal consumers. In the first half of 2021, Philharmonic's revenue increased by 51.4% year-on-year to 10.827 billion yuan, accounting for 47.5% of Anta Group's overall revenue; Lulu lemon's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was $4.128 billion / + 54.49%, and its net profit was $541 million / + 109%. For the consumers of generation Z, many sports brands make their products younger by signing up spokesmen with huge traffic and co branding. Some brands have taken "rejuvenation" as the strategic policy of the group for a long time.
Important announcement of the company: [ Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) ] announcement on the conversion of "Taiping convertible bonds" into shares; [361 °] summary of operations in the fourth quarter of 2021; [ Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ] suggestive announcement that biyin convertible bonds may meet the redemption conditions; [ Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) ] announcement on interest payment of "wig convertible bonds"; [ Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) ] announcement of annual performance increase in 2021; The latest operating performance and profit forecast of [Anta] in the fourth quarter and the whole year; [ Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) ] capital reduction announcement; [ Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ] briefing on the company's new self operated stores in December; [ Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) ] announcement on investment and establishment of subsidiaries; [ Jinhong Fashion Group Co.Ltd(603518) ] 2021 annual performance pre profit announcement; [ Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) ] announcement of annual performance pre profit in 2021; [ Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) ] announcement on the completion of grant registration of stock option incentive plan in 2021.
Investment suggestion: for the clothing and home textile sector, it is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports and Li Ning, the leaders of sportswear with higher prosperity and better competition pattern, as well as Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Bosideng and Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) .
Risk tips: 1 Real estate sales did not meet expectations; 2. The epidemic situation in China continues to occur repeatedly; 3. Intensified brand competition; 4. The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia may affect the production capacity release of the textile manufacturing industry; 5. The exchange rate fluctuates greatly.
