Power coal industry chain: the port price of power coal continued to rise this week (1.17-1.21), and the increase of overseas coal price was higher than that of coal from Chinese origin. The annual price center decreased to a certain extent compared with last year, but remained relatively high. Inventory is higher than that of previous years. Approaching the Spring Festival, the demand will weaken in the future or seasonally.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: Metallurgical coal prices were flat this week. The supply side is tight, the demand side is significantly improved, the prices of port main coking coal and imported coking coal are flat, and the import price difference maintains the previous value. The price of injected coal was flat during the week. On the demand side, the coke price was flat and the coke oven operating rate continued to rise. Steel prices rose slightly this week, and the operating rate of blast furnace was the same as last week. The inventory of coking coal, injection coal and coke in all links has increased significantly, which reflects the active replenishment under the condition of improved demand. Pay attention to the improvement of countercyclical regulation policies and real estate regulation and correction measures on the demand side.
Equity view: this week, the sector rose sharply, ranking first in the whole industry. Only Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) and some coke stocks fell, and the metallurgical coal industry chain and performance exceeded the expected target. Recently, prices have continued to rise, which is good for the improvement of market expectations. Near the release period of performance forecast, the target that exceeds the expectation may be more favored by the market. Focus on Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
