Core view
Market review: throughout the week, the CSI 300 index rose 1.11%, the gem index fell 2.72%, and the textile and garment industry index fell 3.67%, which was weaker than the CSI 300 and the gem index. Among them, the textile manufacturing sector fell 3.55%, and the brand clothing sector fell 3.78%. In terms of individual stocks, we covered Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Anta sports and Li Ning, which achieved positive returns.
Overseas highlights: (1) after retirement, amancio Ortega, founder of Zara group, focused on real estate. (2) Gucci and American designer tide play superplastic, and the first joint NFT series was officially released. (3) The venture capital Department of LVMH group invests in aim é leondore, a new york fashion brand.
Important information of the industry and the company: (1) Anta Sports: the company issued a profit forecast announcement, excluding the impact of share in the loss of the joint venture company. It is expected that the profit attributable to shareholders of the company will increase by no less than 35% in 2021, including the impact of share in the loss of the joint venture company. It is expected that the profit attributable to shareholders of the company will increase by no less than 45% in 2021. (2) Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : the company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 to be about 900 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 104.66% to 127.40%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was about 850 million yuan to 950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.36% to 123.93%. (3) Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) : the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of about 7.66 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 9%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 655 million yuan, an increase of about 225 million yuan over the same period of last year, an increase of about 52% year-on-year. (4) 1 / 15 ~ 1 / 21 investment and financing of consumer industry: A. anti aging cosmetics brand daslan completed millions of RMB pre-A round of financing; b. Cutting edge skin care brand C coffee completed round B financing. C. Beauty Collection store brand harmay Huamei completed nearly $200 million in round C and round D financing
Suggested sector combinations this week: Shenzhou International, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Anta sports and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) . Last week’s portfolio performance: Shenzhou International 5%, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) – 1%, Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) – 5%, Anta Sports 8% and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) – 4%.
Investment proposal and investment object
On Monday, the Bureau of statistics disclosed the data of social zero in 2021. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in China increased by 12.5% year-on-year, including 1.7% growth in December, which continued to slow down compared with November, and the retail sales of consumer goods other than cars increased by 3.0%. In 2021, the online retail of physical goods increased by 12% year-on-year, of which the wearing goods increased by 8.3%. In December, from the perspective of structure, the mandatory consumer goods such as grain, oil, food, beverages and daily necessities were relatively stronger. Among the optional consumer goods we covered, gold, silver and jewelry decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in December (an increase of 11.38% compared with 19 years), cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats increased by 2.5% and – 2.3% year-on-year (an increase of 11.73% and 1.41% respectively compared with 19 years). The continuation of sporadic epidemic in China and the decline of consumption intention under the background of economic slowdown have had a great impact on optional consumption in the fourth quarter. We judge that under the current situation that the market is generally cautious about China’s consumption data in the first quarter, export manufacturing in the sector is one of the few sub sectors with high prosperity certainty, and will still be the focus of the textile and garment industry in the short term. For the brand clothing sector, there is a lack of catalyst in terms of short-term terminal data. Considering the relatively high base in the first quarter of 2021, we expect the annual operating performance to show a trend of low before high, and more structural opportunities in investment. For the whole year, our first choice is still the two deterministic tracks of high prosperity sportswear and great beauty (cosmetics and medical beauty). Among them, the sportswear segment recommends Li Ning (02331, buy), Anta sports (02020, buy), Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979, buy) and Shenzhou International (02313, buy). It is suggested to pay attention to Tebu International (01368, buy), Large beauty sector is optimistic about Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (603605, buy), Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957, overweight), it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315, overweight), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (688363, Unrated) and Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896, Unrated). The traditional clothing sector recommends Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) (002003, buy), Bosideng (03998, buy), Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) (605080, buy), Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) (002293, overweight), Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) (002563, buy), etc. It is recommended to pay attention to Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) (002154, not rated), Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) (002832, not rated), etc. In the short term, from the perspective of the sector as a whole, we still suggest paying attention to the segmentation leaders with relatively certain growth, undervalued value, high roe or high dividend, especially those with global competitiveness in the manufacturing field.
Risk tips
The repeated global epidemic, the pressure of economic slowdown on China’s retail terminals, trade friction, cotton price and RMB exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
