Investment strategy: this week, coal prices continued to rise. Near the Spring Festival, some coal mines have stopped production, and the supply side continued to tighten; The downstream is worried about the impact of factors such as coal mine holidays and transportation bottlenecks. The goods are actively prepared, there are many coal mine transportation vehicles, and the upward trend of price continues. Recently, with the steady recovery of inventories of Indonesia’s state power company and terminal power plants, the government has lifted the export ban on 139 coal producers. As of January 18, a total of 48 coal ships in Indonesia have been allowed to leave the port. It is expected that the international coal supply will improve. We still need to pay attention to the follow-up measures of the Indian government. Last week, many coal enterprises disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.87 billion yuan (+ 4.6 times), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) 4.5-5 billion yuan (+ 4.4-5.0 times), Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) 2.15-2.45 billion yuan (+ 4.7-5.5 times). The significant release of the performance of coal enterprises and the full release of the risk of superimposed coal price are conducive to the continuous catalysis of the market of the sector. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need transformation, power investment, energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: near the Spring Festival, the downstream continues to replenish the reservoir, and the coal price continues to rise. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1000 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the rise. In terms of supply, near the Spring Festival, some small mines have stopped production and holidays, and most of the coal mines in production are in normal production, so the supply continues to be slightly tight; The downstream replenishment is active, the queue of hauling vehicles is common, and the price of pit mouth has increased. In terms of import, traders are cautious about the current coal import transactions in China, and the transactions are concentrated in overseas markets; According to importers, Indonesian coal is being released in batches, and some pallets are expected to arrive at the end of January and February. In terms of demand, affected by the Winter Olympic Games and the suspension of production and holiday near the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal has a positive demand for goods preparation in the near future, mainly the phased replenishment demand of chemical non electric enterprises. On the whole, the coal supply continued to be slightly tight this week, the export ban in Indonesia was relaxed, the overseas market demand was strong, and the phased replenishment of storage in the downstream continued, providing strong support for the coal price. In the follow-up, we will pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the arrangement of Indonesia.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: both supply and demand are weak, mainly stable. As of January 21, the price (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port has been increased by 2830 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, coal mines in some areas of Inner Mongolia and Shanxi stopped production and had holidays, and the supply side decreased. In terms of import, due to Mongolia’s private change in the closed-loop mode, China suspended the accounting and testing of Mongolian drivers on the 18th. There was no customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port on the 19th. On the 3rd of this week, the average daily customs clearance was 92 vehicles (week on week – 6 vehicles), and Mongolia’s coal resources were very limited. In terms of demand, the coke inventory of steel mills is high, the production restriction policy has gradually begun, the coke market sentiment has weakened, and the demand is weak. On the whole, both supply and demand are tightened, the short-term market is mainly stable, and follow-up attention is paid to the implementation of production restriction..
Coke summary and Outlook: the balance between supply and demand will be maintained before the festival. As of January 21, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 183 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the market was temporarily stable after the fourth round of increase. With the recovery of coke enterprises’ profits, the construction of coke enterprises picked up steadily. However, with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, coke enterprises in some regions received the notice of production restriction, and some coke enterprises were blocked from shipping due to the weather and epidemic situation. In terms of demand, the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games has gradually become clear, the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the weather and epidemic situation have led to poor arrival of some steel mills, affecting market sentiment. On the whole, the coke supply tightened, the demand weakened, and the market gradually stabilized. Follow up attention was paid to the shipping situation and the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games.
Power coal: the price of port coal rises, and the port inventory increases. (1) As of January 21, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 1000 yuan / ton, up 55 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 20, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $227.21/ton, up 4.9% week on week. (3) As of January 21, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 484000 tons, an increase of 84000 tons on a weekly basis. (4) As of January 21, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.1 million tons, an increase of 50000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 3.23 million tons, with a decrease of 170000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has risen, and the inventory of coking plants has increased month on month. (1) As of January 21, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. (2) As of January 20, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $446.50/ton, up 5.43% on a weekly basis. (3) As of January 21, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 13.58 million tons, an increase of 694200 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price rose month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of January 21, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3200 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 21, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 76.70%, with a week on week increase of 2.41%. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of January 21, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 737000 tons, with a decrease of 65800 tons around the week.
Review of industry highlights: (1) the national Standing Committee: maintain the normal production of coal and give priority to ensuring the transportation of coal for power generation and heating; (2) SASAC: by the end of last year, the inventory of electric coal of central power generation enterprises had reached 95.69 million tons; (3) Shanxi’s medium and long-term coal contract signing reached a new high in 2022; (4) IEA: the increase in demand led to a record high carbon emission of the power industry in 2021 (5) Indonesia lifted export ban on 139 Coal Enterprises
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
