Talk every Monday: the fundamentals are low and the policy continues to improve
According to the real estate industry data released from January to December, the year-on-year growth rate of various indicators decreased to a certain extent compared with November, failed to continue the decline narrowing trend, and the industry fundamentals are still in a low consolidation state. On the other hand, the favorable policies continued to be introduced, and the five-year LPR interest rate decreased by 5 basis points. Different cities adjusted the policies of the real estate industry in the direction of “implementing policies according to the city”, which will promote the continuous improvement of the industry fundamentals to a certain extent.
The cumulative sales of commercial housing continued to decline, and the sales of single month decreased slightly year-on-year. From January to December 2021, the cumulative sales of commercial housing was 18.2 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The monthly sales were 2 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.8% and a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The market will remain stable before the Spring Festival, focusing on the performance of the commercial housing market from February to March after the reduction of the five-year LPR interest rate. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing market has entered the traditional off-season. With the superposition of the impact of the epidemic, it is difficult for the commercial housing market to reproduce great changes. In January, the five-year LPR interest rate was lowered, adding to the traditional sales “xiaoyangchun” of the real estate industry after the festival. At that time, we can more clearly observe the future trend of the sales market. It is expected that there will be a clear rebound in the commercial housing market in the first quarter.
In December, the single month year-on-year growth rate of completed area maintained positive growth, and the single month year-on-year growth rate of new construction area did not improve. In December, the new construction area of real estate increased by – 31.1% year-on-year, with a decrease of 10.1pct. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed area was 1.9%, a decrease of 13.5pct compared with the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate in a single month fell, but still maintained a positive growth. It is expected that the willingness of real estate enterprises to start new projects will remain depressed until the tight level of funds of real estate enterprises decreases and there are obvious signs of improvement in the commercial housing market. Under the influence of the time lag effect at the peak of new construction, the “guarantee of completion” and the acceleration of the lifting of the ban on pre-sale funds, the year-on-year growth rate of completion is still supported.
The completed investment in real estate development increased by – 13.9% in a single month in December, with a decline of 9.6 percentage points, which failed to continue the rebound trend in November. The project end expenditure fell, and the land expenditure fell sharply, resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in the monthly value of real estate investment. In December, the land purchase fee decreased by 34.7% year-on-year, expanding by 23.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sharp decline in the monthly amount of land purchase fee is the main reason for the decline in real estate development investment. In December, the monthly growth rate of investment expenditure on real estate development other than land purchase fees was – 9.8%, a decrease of 8.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, which failed to continue the rebound trend of narrowing the year-on-year decline in November. The downward pressure on land purchase fees and engineering expenditures will continue. As time goes into 2022, the fundamental impact of the downturn in the land market will gradually appear, and the project funds will also be affected by the downturn in the land market and the weakening of the newly started area, facing downward pressure.
The year-on-year growth rate of real estate development capital sources fell in a single month, and the year-on-year growth rate of all capital channels fell in a single month. In December, the source of real estate development funds increased by – 19.3% year-on-year, with a decline of 12.3pct. Personal mortgage loans, Chinese loans and self raised funds all fell twice, and the deposit and advance collection maintained a downward trend. Under the continuous care of the policy, the sales market will gradually come out of the bottom and promote the recovery of various capital channels.
In terms of national and local policies, there has been continuous marginal improvement, which is expected to promote the gradual recovery of the fundamentals of the commercial housing market.
Data tracking (January 17-january 23): due to the impact of cross year, some data have changed significantly
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 19pct and – 21pct in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 16pct, – 12pct, second tier cities + 13pct, – 0.1pct, third tier cities – 58pct and – 54pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was – 24pct year-on-year in a single week and – 19pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is – 64pct year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 71pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 79pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 1%.
City Market: month on month: Beijing (- 28pct), Shanghai (- 34pct), Guangzhou (- 16pct), Shenzhen (- 1PCT), Hangzhou (- 53pct), Wuhan (- 5pct), Nanjing (+ 37pct).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default, and the policy is beyond the expected regulation.
