Key investment points
This week’s view:
Adjustment provides a good opportunity for layout, grasp the undervalued value and repair the market. Affected by the centralized purchase of growth hormone and the overall market style, the pharmaceutical sector made many adjustments this week. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 1.11%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by – 7.19%, ranking 28th among 28 primary sub industries, among which the biological products sub sector led the decline, with – 10.64%. At present, the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) has been at the lowest point since 2015. After the valuation digestion, the track leader gradually enters the adaptation range and overlaps into the performance forecast / express window period, which is expected to drive the overall good performance of the sector. In the follow-up, we continue to suggest to grasp two directions: the fundamental improvement and valuation repair of the undervalued sector, such as traditional Chinese medicine, API, chain pharmacies, etc; High prosperity track after continuous adjustment, such as cro / cdmo, upstream of life sciences, medical services, vaccines, etc.
It is suggested to continue to focus on covid-19 therapeutic drugs and industrial chain investment opportunities. On January 20, the Geneva pharmaceutical patent pool (MPP) announced that it had signed non exclusive sublicense agreements with 27 generic pharmaceutical manufacturing companies to produce and supply high-quality and affordable molnupiravir generic drugs, an oral small molecule anti covid-19 drug, for 105 low – and middle-income countries or regions around the world; A total of five Chinese pharmaceutical companies were shortlisted for the license agreement: Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Longze pharmaceutical and Desano were licensed to produce molnupiravir API and finished drug at the same time, and cdmo Langhua pharmaceutical under viabio was licensed to produce molnupiravir API. At the current time point, we believe that the follow-up catalysis of covid-19 therapeutic drugs is expected to continue. It is suggested to focus on three logics: Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises with high progress; Cdmo industrial chain of new drugs created by large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises; And generic API applications in other parts of the world. Such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) , etc.
Centralized collection of 11 provinces in Guangdong: the selection rules of blood products are mild, and the impact of growth hormone decline is controllable in the short term. 1) Growth hormone: there are 6 growth hormone enterprises that have obtained the reported volume this time. According to the grouping rules of purchase orders, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , kinsay pharmaceutical and unisell enter the a purchase order. The highest valid application price of water needle is about 70% lower than the online price. According to our calculation, the scale of centralized purchase corresponding to Kinsey pharmaceutical and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) obtained the reported volume this time is 117 million yuan and 45.9 million yuan (calculated according to the online price), accounting for a small amount of revenue of the two companies (the revenue of Kinsey pharmaceutical and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) in 2020 is 5.8 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan respectively), which has a controllable impact on the short-term performance of the company. Considering the large price reduction, the possibility of price linkage inside and outside the hospital and the expansion of alliance procurement to the whole country, the centralized procurement still needs to continue to pay attention to the participation strategies and coping methods of growth hormone related enterprises, especially the three enterprises of Shuizhen. 2) Blood products: the winning rules are relatively mild. The quotation of the declared product regulations of enterprises only needs to be ≤ the low value between the highest valid quotation (P0) and the lowest price in the alliance area to enter the list of proposed winners. There is no limit on the number of successful enterprises; The selected enterprise obtains 100% of the first year’s pre purchase volume of the enterprise in the alliance area and obtains incremental use. We expect that the price reduction range is limited: on the one hand, the government’s guidance price is relatively loose. Most of the maximum effective declared prices of the five varieties are 30-40% higher than the online price, and the willingness of enterprises to reduce prices is limited. On the other hand, the indications for medical insurance coverage of blood products are relatively limited, and most of the volume is still in the out of hospital market that is not affected by the centralized collection policy. The import proportion of human albumin in China has been maintained at about 60% for a long time, and the proportion of import batch issuance will reach 68.4% in 2020. In particular, the use of imported human albumin products in class III hospitals is high. It is expected that this centralized collection will promote the use of domestic human albumin in hospitals and further accelerate the substitution of domestic albumin.
Omicron became the mainstream strain, and enhanced vaccination was still effective. Omicron has spread rapidly since it was found. According to the data of who, as of January 4, Omicron strain had appeared in 128 countries and regions around the world. At present, Omicron has become the main strain, accounting for more than 80% in most countries. According to the research published by the national infectious diseases Medical Center (Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University) on emerging microbes & infections, the virus may still maintain a certain level of transmission after the third injection, but it will improve the group’s protection against Omicron and still have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of severe cases. Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) . In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. Combined with the improvement of vaccination awareness under covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Performance of key recommended stocks: key recommendations in January: Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) ; The average decline this week was 6.64%, outperforming the pharmaceutical industry by 0.55%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 8.7%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 3.3%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 5.4%. This week, the CSI 300 rose by 1.11%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by – 7.19%, ranking 28th among the 28 first tier sub industries. Chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all fell, with biological products falling the first, at – 10.64%; Chemical pharmaceuticals had the smallest decline of – 5.06%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
