Key investment points:
Recent market review
In December, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.24%, and the home appliance (CITIC) industry rose by 7.32%. The industry outperformed the market by 5.08 percentage points, ranking seventh among the 30 CITIC primary industries. Among them, lighting electricians and other sub industries increased by 4.01%; White home electronics industry rose 8.52%; Kitchen appliance sub industry rose 10.85%; Black home electronics industry rose 3.29%; The small electronics industry rose 3.20%. In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers were Zhejiang Goldensea Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(603311) (+ 39.65%), Youngy Health Co.Ltd(300247) (36.69%), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (33.72%), Tailong lighting (24.97%) and Anhui Julong Transmission Technology Co.Ltd(300475) (21.23%); The largest declines were Aucma Co.Ltd(600336) (- 24.36%), Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) (- 16.87%), Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co.Ltd(300916) (- 11.03%), Changshu Tianyin Electromechanical Co.Ltd(300342) (- 10.01%) and Guangdong Sunwill Precising Plastic Co.Ltd(002676) (- 7.98%). In December, the overall valuation of the home appliance industry increased slightly compared with the previous month, ranking in the middle and lower reaches of 30 CITIC first-class industries. From the perspective of valuation, as of December 31, the current overall valuation of the home appliance industry is 19 times (pe-ttm, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate is 141.79% compared with CSI 300. Among them, the white appliance sector is 15.58 times, the black appliance sector is 21.56 times, the small appliance sector is 26.55 times, the lighting electrician and other sectors are 35.33 times, and the kitchen appliance sector is 20.62 times.
Industry operation data
Air conditioning: in December 2021, China produced 19.635 million air conditioners in that month, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.70%. From January to December this year, China's cumulative output of air conditioners reached 218357000, with a year-on-year increase of 9.40%. According to the data released online by the industry, the total production schedule of the household air conditioning industry is planned to be 13.77 million units in January 2022, down 3.5% from the actual production performance in the same period last year. According to the production scheduling data in January, the overall slight downward trend continues, mainly due to the overall downturn of the terminal sales market and the current off-season of air conditioning, so enterprises are more cautious in production scheduling. Sales volume and price: according to the statistics of ovicloud, in December, the offline sales volume of household air conditioner decreased by 25.17% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 30.91% year-on-year, and the average price was 4158 yuan, an increase of 321 yuan year-on-year. From January to December, the cumulative off-line sales of air conditioning reached 33.572 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%; Offline sales totaled 8.8938 million units, down 6.31% year-on-year. In December, the online sales volume of household air conditioners decreased by 31.4% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 35.7% year-on-year, and the average price was 3144 yuan, an increase of 197 yuan year-on-year. From January to December, the cumulative sales volume of air conditioning online reached 81.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.69%; Online sales totaled 27.9342 million units, down 3.62% year-on-year.
Refrigerators: in terms of output: by December 2021, the cumulative output of household refrigerators in China had reached 89.921 million units this year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%; Among them, the monthly output in December was 7.578 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the monthly sales volume of the refrigerator line in December decreased by 0.45% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 15.21% year-on-year. In December, the monthly sales volume of refrigerator online decreased by 1.22% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 6.44% year-on-year. Price: the average price of the refrigerator industry has increased significantly since the second quarter of last year. According to the statistics of ovicloud, in December 2021, the offline average price of the refrigerator industry was 6254 yuan, an increase of 957 yuan year-on-year; The average online price of the refrigerator industry was 2689 yuan, an increase of 142 yuan year-on-year.
Washing machines: output: as of December 2021, the cumulative output of domestic washing machines in China this year reached 86.185 million, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year; Among them, the monthly output in December reached 7.856 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the monthly sales volume of washing machine line in December decreased by 13.28% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 24.68% year-on-year. In December, the monthly sales volume of washing machine online decreased by 9.43% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 18.29% year-on-year.
In terms of raw materials, the household appliance industry is mainly composed of aluminum, copper and plastics. Since last year, the price of raw materials in the household appliance industry has been rising, and the price of raw materials has fallen since May. At present, although it is still in the high price range, the expectation of continuous growth has been difficult to maintain. As of December 31, the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was US $2806 / ton, up 42.18% year-on-year; LME copper spot settlement price was US $9740.6/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 25.70%; The spot price of 1mm cold-rolled ordinary sheet was 5396 yuan / ton, up 6.67% year-on-year.
Investment advice
In December, the sales volume of online and offline full categories of the home appliance industry decreased by 13.7% and 11.05% respectively year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 30.11% and 26.99% respectively year-on-year. In terms of exports, the overall export volume of household appliances in December was relatively weak. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, 4.08 million air conditioners were exported in December, a year-on-year increase of 14%; 5.46 million refrigerators were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%; 1.64 million washing machines were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 15.5%. To sum up, the industry is given a "optimistic" rating for the time being. Investment suggestions: white power sector: we think it has configuration value. We suggest paying attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651); Kitchen electricity sector: the prosperity of emerging household appliances such as integrated stoves and dishwashers continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of the emerging household appliances industry who enjoy the high growth dividend of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) (002677), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (300911), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894); Small household appliances sector: we believe that the pressure of high base will be gradually relieved in the future. We suggest paying attention to Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824).
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic environment fluctuation; The risk of repeated outbreaks; Risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation; The risk of serious decline in the end demand of the industry; The risk of declining prosperity of overseas exports.
