This week’s topic: Baijiu Spring Festival starts late this year, and the stock preparation time is shorter than in previous years. Last year, the dynamic sales began one month before the Spring Festival, but this year it was started two weeks before the Spring Festival, and the pace of goods preparation by dealers slowed down significantly. According to the feedback from the channel, the inventory backlog was serious affected by the epidemic in the past 20 years. Since then, the channel has tended to be cautious and strengthened the fine construction, resulting in the backward movement of the goods preparation node. Due to the backward movement of nodes, the feedback from earlier channel research is pessimistic, resulting in the overall performance of the Baijiu sector is poor. In January 4th -1 14, the CITIC Baijiu index fell 9.1%. This week’s channel research shows that the terminal has a good sales situation, the market price is firm, the dealer’s stock is good, the overall fundamentals are still improving, and we are still optimistic about the performance of the Baijiu market. We believe that the phenomenon of “short peak season” may continue during the Spring Festival in the future. It is expected that the goods preparation time for the Mid Autumn Festival will be 10-15 days before the festival and 20 days before the Spring Festival.
Industry highlights: 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the new product “Maotai 1935” is priced at 1188 yuan / bottle. 2) Wusu Beer raised the price of red Wusu Beer due to the increase of cost. 3) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) the net profit in 2021 is expected to increase by 112% – 121% year-on-year. 4) COFCO packaging high-level changes.
Rise and fall of the secondary market: from January 17 to January 21, the food and beverage of the secondary market was + 3.9%, commerce and trade was – 1.4%, agriculture was – 3.1%, and CITIC 30 ranked 4th, 16th and 23rd in the industry.
Risk tips: 1. The risk of macroeconomic weakness; 2. The risk of long-term epidemic prevention and control in China; 3. Risks of major food safety incidents; 4. Major agricultural epidemic risk.
