One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index rose 2.22%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11%, and the relative income was 1.1%. The performance of the sector was stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (01.14-01.20), a total of 53780 first-hand houses were sold in 58 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 31.1% and a month on month growth rate of – 11.7%; The total transaction area was 5.546 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 28.7% and a month on month growth rate of – 12.8%.
This week (01.14-01.20), a total of 16142 second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 23.4% and a month on month growth rate of – 5.6%; The total transaction area was 1.607 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 21.5% and a month on month growth rate of – 9.2%.
This week (01.14-01.20), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by West China real estate group was 197469000 square meters, with a month on month growth rate of 0.3%, and the decontamination cycle was 71.7 weeks.
This week (01.10-01.16), 4.865 million square meters of land were supplied, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 82.7%; The land sold was 4.779 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 83.9%; The land transaction amount was 4.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 91.7%.
This week (01.14-01.20), real estate enterprises issued a total of 6.37 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 71.5% and a month on month growth rate of – 49.2%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 2.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 82.9%, a month on month growth rate of – 22.5%, and an average income of 7.76%.
Investment advice
This week, Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said that in the next step, the people’s Bank of China will fully implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, steadily implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, increase financial support for Housing leasing, and implement policies according to the city to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. The four departments of Yantai, Shandong jointly issued the notice on implementing incentive measures for Yantai trustworthy real estate development enterprises in 2020. For development enterprises with AAA credit rating, the retention ratio of commercial housing pre-sale supervision funds was reduced by 5 percentage points. For development enterprises with a credit rating of AA, the retention proportion of pre-sale funds of commercial housing will be reduced by 3 percentage points. On January 17, the central bank launched a 700 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation. The bid winning interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and open market reverse repurchase operation decreased by 10 basis points to 2.85% and 2.10% respectively. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) announced in the inter-bank bond market that it will book and issue real estate project M & a theme bonds (22 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) 02) on January 21. The scale of the bonds is 5 billion yuan and the term is 3 years. The raised funds will be used for Real Estate Project M & A loans. This bond is the first real estate project M & a theme bond issued by financial institutions. On January 20, the central bank authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that the one-year LPR was 3.7%, down 10 basis points from the previous month; LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous month.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We mainly recommend leading real estate enterprises with strong performance certainty China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Longguang group, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Baolong real estate and Country Garden Service in property management sector, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and Nacity Property Service Group Co.Ltd(603506) . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk tips
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
