Key events of this week: 1) the economic data released in December, the investment data improved, the year-on-year decline in real estate sales expanded, and the completion end maintained growth: according to the National Bureau of statistics, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) yoy + 4.9% (previous value + 2.9%) in 21 years. The sales area / completed area of commercial housing in December alone is yoy-15.6% / + 1.9%. 2) The central bank cut interest rates comprehensively to guide the interest rate center to move down and stabilize the expectation of economic growth: this week, the central bank cut the 1-year MLF / 7-day Omo interest rate by 10bp each on the 17th, and then cut the 1-year / 5-year lpr10bp / 5bp again on the 20th. 3) The Ministry of housing and urban rural development vigorously promoted the supply of affordable rental housing in 22 years: on January 20, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that focusing on large cities with net population inflow, it raised 2.4 million affordable housing units in 22 years and continued to promote the structural reform of housing supply side. 4) Major engineering projects are expected to accelerate the implementation: on January 18, the national development and Reform Commission said that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance to speed up the implementation of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan. 5) The growth rate of Q4 performance of gypsum board leader stabilized, and the high profit of glass fiber industry continued: Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) / Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) it is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.43-3.72 billion / 550-610 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 30% / 101.3% - 123.5%.
This week's view: this week, we added carbon fiber industry data tracking content, mainly including product price, cost and profit data, as well as capacity / output / import and export / inventory data. This week, the central bank cut interest rates in an all-round way to release liquidity, and monetary policy actively made efforts to stabilize growth. We believe that in the short term, we attach importance to the infrastructure chain and are optimistic about the investment opportunities of brand building materials and new materials throughout the year. The expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials (refer to the resumption in 2014 / 18). The performance repair is expected. The layout of brand building materials has high certainty. In the field of new materials, carbon fiber / high-purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. The glass fiber cycle weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue, and the price center of electronic cloth fell. The price toughness of float glass still exists; Photovoltaic glass may have price elasticity at the bottom of the cycle. Cement industry integration + extension; Water reducing agent opens up growth space for functional materials.
Brand building materials: the expected bottom corresponds to low valuation, and the performance repair is worth looking forward to. 1) Since 21q4, "bottom of real estate policy + broad real estate market (affordable housing)" + landing of credit risk + stabilization and decline of raw material prices, and the expected bottom of brand building materials has been established. 2) From the 14-year and 18-year recovery, the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials. 3) Leading enterprises have enhanced their competitiveness and highlighted their growth (category expansion and application expansion) during the pressure period of the industry. They hope to meet the resonance of performance and valuation in 22 years. Leading enterprises are ahead of other enterprises α On the one hand, the factor is reflected in the anti risk ability of the downturn, on the other hand, it is more vulnerable to factor addition when positive variables appear. The leading enterprises of brand building materials have advantages in terms of brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, and take the lead in highlighting the encirclement and taking the lead in the bottom building process. At present, the leading enterprises have entered the layout time point. We recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) . It is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu, Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) .
New material field: 1) carbon fiber industry: at the weekend, the average price of carbon fiber market was 187000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 4.7), the average price of large tow was 147000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 2.2), and the average price of small tow was 225000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 7.0); At the weekend, the inventory of carbon fiber factory was 12 tons (Mom-1, yoy-13). In terms of the market this week, the market of raw material acrylonitrile stopped falling and remained stable temporarily, the price of precursor remained high, and the offer of carbon fiber manufacturers fluctuated little; In terms of supply, at present, China's carbon fiber plants are operating stably, the source of goods is mainly to execute orders, mainly for old customers, and the overall supply of the market is tight; In terms of demand, the downstream orders on demand. With the increase of demand in photovoltaic and other new energy industries, other demand remains stable, and the overall market demand is good, but some downstream accept the high price of raw materials is limited. We believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high demand increase (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the "favorable climate, favorable location and harmonious people". After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of "domestic substitution" and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, those who win the "raw silk" win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the industry penetration can be improved or rely on "price" for "demand". We suggest paying attention to the carbon fiber leader Zhongfu Shenying (to be listed), Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , precursor leader Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , and Hengshen shares; Carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; Downstream composite manufacturers Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Hongfa new materials, etc. 2) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are recommended. 3) Electronic cover glass: Chinese enterprises have achieved a technological breakthrough and passed the downstream certification. Under the condition of improving the penetration rate of domestic mobile phones and ensuring the safety of the supply chain, domestic substitution is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to the iterative breakthrough of electronic cover technology and complete the Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) verified by downstream mobile phone manufacturers. 4) UTG: the penetration acceleration of folding screen mobile phones + alternative CPI trend is obvious, and the demand welcomes the outbreak; Take the lead in realizing technological breakthrough and benefiting mass production enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) of UTG mass production and shipment.
Glass fiber: the industry cycle is weakened and the boom is expected to continue. This week, the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 6133 yuan / ton (unchanged month on month, year-on-year + 467); The average price of electronic yarn G75 is 12250 yuan / ton (unchanged month on month, year-on-year + 1150); The mainstream price of electronic cloth is 5.3 yuan / meter (Mom - 0.2). We expect that the new capacity of the industry will be limited in 22 years, with roving / electronic yarn of about 42 / 100000 tons respectively. In addition, the production line is put into operation more dispersed. We expect the marginal new capacity of 22q1-22q4 to be 1.7/1.7/3.3/13000 tons / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that the global effective production capacity / demand of glass fiber in 22 years will be 9.36/9.43 million tons respectively. The supply and demand are in tight balance. Under the low inventory, the price boom is expected to continue. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leader has core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leader in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced whether from the perspective of increasing market share or continuous decline in cost. We expect that the profit of the bottom leader in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending the glass fiber leader China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) .
We also recommend Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (diaphragm price starts the upward cycle, wind power is expected to hit the bottom and rise, glass fiber profit is expected to exceed expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the future growth sustainability of the three sectors), Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (capacity expansion planning is clear, growth is gradually realized, and the industrial chain integration has strong ability to resist risks), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
The price toughness of building glass still exists; Photovoltaic glass may have price elasticity at the bottom of the cycle. The average price of float glass this weekend is 2066 yuan / ton (mom + 1, yoy - 190); At the weekend, the inventory was 35.58 million heavy containers (mom + 272, yoy + 1794); At the weekend, the production capacity of glass in production was 174975t / D (Mom - 250). This week, China's float glass market operated well, the middle and lower reaches had high enthusiasm for hoarding goods before the Spring Festival, and the inventories of production enterprises in major regions decreased. At present, most downstream processing plants are shut down for holidays, the rigid demand is limited, and the market adjustment power is insufficient. It is expected that the price of float glass will be stable before the Spring Festival. We believe that under the "guaranteed delivery" of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more than 10 years accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. The cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the price of glass is expected to continue to pick up. For photovoltaic glass, under the dual control of energy consumption, the new supply may be less than expected, and the price at the bottom of the industrial cycle may be upward elastic. Optimistic about the revenue proportion of traditional glass enterprises in the field of photovoltaic glass and improve their cost competitiveness. Continue to focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and suggest paying attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) .
Considering that the final demand period has entered, the cement price is expected to continue to fall, but the overall price center will remain high before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the advance development of infrastructure investment and the expected improvement of real estate are expected to support demand, and the role of policy regulation of coal price has been reflected, and the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to be relieved. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of cement sector. This week, the national cement market price fell by 0.3% month on month. The price reduction areas mainly include Hunan, Chongqing, Yunnan and some parts of Jiangsu, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton. In mid and late January, affected by off-season factors, China's cement market demand continued to shrink, with only 30-40% of enterprise shipments left. Cement prices continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The market will enter the closed stage next week. The national storage capacity ratio was 61.3%, month on month + 0.6pct, year-on-year + 8.9pct; The shipment rate was 34.2%, with a chain comparison of -8.4pct and a year-on-year comparison of -15.4pct. 21q4 has gradually played a role in the regulation of the "price limit + production increase" combination policy of coal. Enterprises actively carry out peak shifting production, which promotes the 21q4 price center to maintain a high level, and the cost pressure has been alleviated month on month. Looking forward to the next 22 years, although the overall demand for real estate may be under pressure, the margin has improved. With the steady growth, the infrastructure end is expected to become the starting point, and the overall demand toughness will remain; In addition, the coal price has fallen from a high level, and the profit toughness of enterprises is expected to be maintained. We are still optimistic about the further repair of the sector. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and Chinese building materials.
Other undervalued sectors: it is recommended to pay attention to the leader of refractories Beijing Lier High-Temperature Materials Co.Ltd(002392) , and continue to focus on the leader of China's concrete water reducing agent industry Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) recommendation logic: the company's production capacity planning is clear, which is expected to continue to grow in the next three years and the market share will continue to increase; The price of ethylene oxide, a raw material, dropped rapidly. At the end of September, the price increase of the company was gradually implemented, and the profitability is expected to improve; The company's functional materials (such as anti crack and anti-seepage agent, wind power grouting material, etc.) maintain a high growth, and is expected to grow into an admixture platform enterprise.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downside risk; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises.
