\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
The implementation plan for promoting green consumption was published
We believe that the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile is in a high development stage, and the annual sales volume in 2021 will increase by 157.5% year-on-year to 3.521 million vehicles. The release of the implementation plan for promoting green consumption shows that the support of national policies for the development of new energy vehicles has increased unabated. Driven by the gradual elimination of purchase restrictions, the implementation of traffic restrictions, right of way and other support policies, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow. In the long run, under the goal of “by 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy powered vehicles will reach about 40% by 2030” mentioned in the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, the development space of new energy vehicles is relatively broad and the industrial chain continues to improve.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announce evogo power exchange service brand
We believe that limited endurance capacity and long charging time are the main pain points in the development of new energy vehicles. With the promotion and maturity of power exchange mode, it is expected to alleviate consumers’ mileage anxiety and energy supplement anxiety, and reduce the purchase cost. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched the overall solution of combined power exchange, which has the main characteristics of “one power and multiple vehicles, rent electricity on demand, and can be charged and exchanged”. It helps to promote the technological progress of China’s power exchange infrastructure, form a virtuous circle with the application of new energy vehicles, and help to continuously improve the penetration rate.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of the sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, the supply will drive the change of demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, and the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang Mini EV and other models with best-selling potential;
2) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
3) the demand for long endurance and fast charging is expanding, and the positive materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links driving technological innovation and product iteration;
4) the demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries brought about by the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials continues to be optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) the increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand, and it is expected that the supply and demand of copper foil, diaphragm and other links are tight;
6) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; And continuously improve the charging and changing facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) etc.
\u3000\u30002. new energy
Ranking of global component shipments in 2021
In our opinion, 1) the top five component shipments are vertically integrated manufacturers with strong scale, brand, channel and supply chain advantages. They can ensure the stable supply of raw materials through multi link capacity layout and long order signing, and maximize the retained component side profits in the case of rising product prices, so as to enhance their industry competitiveness; 2) In recent years, the competition pattern of the top ten enterprises in the component link has been basically established. In the future, with the continuous strengthening of the advantages of leading enterprises, the industry concentration is expected to continue to improve.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the short term, the downward cost price in all links of the industrial chain will stimulate the willingness of downstream installation; With the gradual implementation of superimposed large-scale scenery base projects and distributed photovoltaic projects throughout the county, the photovoltaic landscape is expected to continue to rise in the future.
In the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. Photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future. Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale scenery base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power scenery is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern changes, such as tower, spindle, casting, blade and other links; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials;
3) be optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Optimistic about the opportunities under the changes of the whole machine link pattern and technology; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power rationing did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
