Tonga volcano erupted. On January 14 and 15, 2022, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) island country Tonga erupted, which is the most violent volcanic eruption in the 21st century. The volcano at the site of the incident has awakened, and the active period of eruption can last for weeks or even years. It is not clear whether it has reached the peak of eruption at present. Volcanic eruptions affect crops mainly through the following three ways: (1) volcanic ash and acid rain caused by volcanic eruptions may cause direct damage to agricultural production; (2) Volcanic eruptions may cause global temperatures to drop; (3) Volcanic eruptions may cause changes in ocean currents.
Compared with the eruption of Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in 1991, although the eruption of Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines did lead to the decline of global temperature, there is no definite corresponding relationship between the cooling and the reduction of crop production. In terms of soybeans and corn, the United States achieved a bumper harvest of corn and soybeans in 1992. In that year, the unit yield of corn in the United States increased by 26.78% year-on-year and that of soybeans increased by 10.26% year-on-year. In terms of wheat and rice, the global wheat yield per unit area from 1991 to 1993 was - 4.65% / + 3.97% / + 0.13% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the reduction of production in North America and the Soviet Union, which had little to do with volcanic eruption. From 1991 to 1992, the global rice yield per unit area increased by + 0.22% / + 1.37% / + 0.88% year-on-year. The volcanic eruption had little impact on animal husbandry. The cattle stock in Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand increased at a stable growth rate from 1991 to 1993.
Volcanic eruptions prolong El Nino, which in turn affects crop growth and reduces tropical crop production. The El Ni ñ o phenomenon appeared before the volcanic eruption in 1991. The volcanic eruption prolonged the El Ni ñ O process, making El Ni ñ o occur continuously from May 1991 to July 1992 and from March to November 1993. Affected by El Nino, the precipitation in Southeast Asia decreased in summer, resulting in the reduction of the yield of tropical crops such as oil palm fruit. In 1993, the global primary sugar crop yield decreased by - 2.38% year-on-year. Due to drought, the yield in India and Thailand decreased significantly, which may be related to the El Ni ñ o event in 1993.
Tonga volcanic eruption is relatively small and difficult to cause a "year without summer", but it may lead to El Ni ñ o. The sulfur dioxide released by Tonga volcanic eruption is only equivalent to 2% of that emitted by the volcanic eruption in the Philippines in. If there is no large-scale eruption in the later stage, the probability of global temperature reduction is very low. Volcanic eruption may lead to the current La Nina phenomenon to El Nino phenomenon, but it is still inconclusive. In the short term, we should be alert to the acid rain that may be caused by volcanic eruptions, which will affect the grass growth of surrounding countries. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in New Zealand and Australia. In the long run, if Tonga volcano erupts again, it may lead to the reduction of temperature and precipitation in the tropics of the northern and southern hemisphere in 6-8 months, resulting in the reduction of oil palm fruit, Indian sugar and Thai sugar production and the increase of rubber production.
The global climate is facing anomalies, and crop production is facing potential risks, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) may rise but not fall, resulting in short-term opportunities in the planting chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of large-scale reclamation groups brought by the subsequent weather interpretation and the growth of relevant crops in the current weather sensitive period.
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Volcanic eruption again, La Ni ñ A and El Ni ñ o impact exceeded expectations, investment suggestions and investment targets
