Comments on online freight: on January 18, 2022, the Ministry of transport released the basic operation of the online freight industry in 2021. In 2021, there were 1968 online freight enterprises in China, integrating 3.6 million social scattered transport capacity and 3.9 million drivers. The annual freight bill volume was 69.12 million, 3.9 times that of 2020. We believe that: first, the online freight industry has a good growth, and the order volume in 2021 is 3.9 times that in 2020. Second, the penetration rate of online freight transportation is 30%, which has room for further improvement. Third, the measures for the operation and management of network platform road freight transportation is postponed. In the future, the revised ideas are expected to take compliance development as the core concept, and the concentration of network freight market is expected to increase. The fourth is to recommend the high growth logic of road freight digitization. The network freight track has been endowed with the potential of rapid growth. The growth rate of the industry is nearly 50% and the penetration rate is only 30%, which has room for substantial improvement. Focus on Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) (002010. SZ), which is committed to promoting the digitization of road freight, and pay attention to manbang group (YMM. N) and Cmst Development Co.Ltd(600787) (600787. SH).
This week’s industry dynamic data tracking 1 Air cargo market: air cargo prices fell week on week. In January 2022, the price of air cargo from Shanghai to North America was US $10.1/kg, with a week on week ratio of – 16.39% and a year-on-year ratio of + 42.25%. 2. Air passenger transport market: affected by newly confirmed cases, the number of flights at Shanghai and Shenzhen airports decreased month on month this week. 3. Shipping market: in terms of bulk transportation, the price index of bulk transportation market continued to callback month on month, and the BDI index closed at 1415 points. In terms of oil transportation, oil transportation prices continued to hover at the bottom this week, and the BDTI index closed at 692 points. In terms of centralized transportation, the SCFI index closed at 5053.12 points, and the centralized transportation price maintained a high range in January. In terms of domestic trade container transportation, the price of domestic trade container transportation remained high, and the PDCI index closed at 1756 points. 4. Express market: the price war eased further in December, and the unit price level of Tongda rose to more than 2.3 yuan / ticket. 5. Road network traffic: in December, due to the disturbance of the epidemic in many places in China, the travel demand continued to be under pressure at the end of the year.
The performance of the transportation industry in the capital market since the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 have increased by – 3.22% and – 3.26% respectively, and the transportation index has increased by – 0.28%; In terms of transportation sub sectors, railways and highways + 0.51%, airports + 5.54%, shipping ports – 3.56%, public transport – 5.84% and logistics – 2.65%.
The core combination shows that the core combination recommended by Galaxy transportation is S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352. SZ), Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128. SH), Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) (002010. SZ). As of January 21, 2022, the core combination of Galaxy transportation in 2022 is – 5.98%, and the relative income is – 5.70%.
Risks: cross border logistics demand is less than expected, express price war, repeated covid-19 epidemic, changes in transportation policies and regulations, etc.
