This week, we released the Shandong Nanshan Fashion Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(300918) in-depth report. The focus of the company is: (1) the research and development advantage of woolen fabrics is leading. According to the announcement, the company is the only high-tech enterprise in the world that can produce and manufacture optim fabrics. Through optim fabrics, the company has broken through the wearing performance of woolen fabrics, and expanded woolen products from traditional winter products to four seasons products, which are applied to sportswear Such fields as stormsuit, casual windbreaker, etc. According to our analysis, with the continuous optimization of product structure, the unit price is expected to lead the growth in the future. (2) Clothing business: in 20 and 21 years, it was greatly affected by the epidemic and shipping costs. In 22 years, with the gradual recovery of society after the epidemic and the mitigation of shipping, the company’s clothing business is expected to usher in an inflection point. (3) In the first half of 2022, the new UHMWPE material project with an annual output of 600 tons will be put into operation.
At the current time point, we mainly recommend Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) :
(1) Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) : this week, the company released the annual report forecast, and the annual performance exceeded expectations. Our analysis mainly comes from the higher than expected recovery of capacity utilization and the higher than expected price increase in Q4.
(2) for the target of high view track, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) : 1) there are sufficient export orders and it is expected to grow steadily in the future; 2) Domestic business benefited from the policy of superposition and double reduction of epidemic situation, driving the hot demand for camping. In the medium and long term, the proportion of domestic sales revenue is expected to exceed half in the future, and the superimposed net interest rate will be improved to 15% +.
(3) Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) with high-end track positioning and extension expansion space: 1) the main brand has increased its efforts to open stores in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% and higher than that of the industry; 2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension shop space; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; 3) BAONIAO is expected to maintain an increase of more than 10%, and usher in the improvement of net interest rate with the production of Hefei factory; 4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits.
Market review: underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.33pct
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the gem index fell 2.72%, and the SW textile and garment sector fell 3.29%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.33pct and the gem index by 0.57pct. Among them, SW textile manufacturing fell 3.31%, and SW clothing and home textile fell 3.28%. At present, the PE of SW textile and garment industry is 18.81. This week, textile performed best, with an increase of 2.56%; Underwear performed the worst, down 4.39%.
Market data tracking: China’s cotton price index rose 0.82%
In 2021, the total amount of social zero in China was 412689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In 2021, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles reached 148.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.7%.
As of January 21, China’s cotton 328 index was 22645 yuan / ton, up 0.82% this week, and China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 21858 yuan / ton, up 5.20% this week. As of January 20, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 21463 yuan / ton, up 6.94% this week. On the whole, the price difference of cotton inside and outside this week was 787 yuan / ton, which was 895 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of last week.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation repeatedly affects offline sales; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
