The index of the banking sector increased steadily this week (1.17-1.21), and the price to book ratio was lf0.5 as of the last trading day of this week 65pb, which is significantly higher than last week’s valuation, and the market heat has increased. The average daily trading volume is 1101.559 billion yuan (mom + 2.46%). This week, the central bank’s wide caliber (including 7-day reverse repo & MLF) net investment is 650 billion yuan, and the 7-day reverse repo interest rate has decreased by 10bps to 2.10%. The overall liquidity is at a loose level; On Friday (January 21), it was announced that the weighted value of dr007 was 2.10%, which was equal to the reverse repurchase level and had good overall liquidity.
15 A-share listed banks issued performance letters, which resonated with the stock price and restored the energy of accumulated valuation. This week, a total of six A-share listed banks announced their performance express, including one joint-stock bank: China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) in 2021, the revenue increased by 7.14% year-on-year to 152.8 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 14.73% year-on-year to 43.4 billion yuan, with the performance exceeding expectations; Three urban commercial banks: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Changsha Co.Ltd(601577) and Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) , the revenue increased by 28.24%, 15.78%, 28.11% to 52.7 billion yuan, 20.9 billion yuan and 10.2 billion yuan respectively year on year, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 29.67%, 18.09%, 20.52% to 19.5 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan respectively. The performance improved rapidly and the asset quality became better; Two rural commercial banks: Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601825) , the revenue increased by 0.51% and 9.57% to 3.37 billion yuan and 24.15 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 20.81% and 18.81% to 1.28 billion yuan and 9.7 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. The growth rate of performance exceeded 18%. The asset quality is optimized and the overall outlook is good in the future.
The central bank made it clear in its speech that policies should be pushed forward and actively take care of steady and rapid economic growth. Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the Central Bank of China, summarized the central bank’s monetary policy in 2021 at the meeting to answer reporters’ questions, and expounded the keynote of the central bank’s monetary policy in 2022: adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress in stability, the prudent monetary policy is flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive and enterprising, Pay attention to the forward force, guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, stabilize the macro-economic market, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for promoting high-quality economic development. The main tasks are as follows: (1) maintain the steady growth of the total amount of money and credit; 2) Maintain the steady optimization of credit structure; 3) Keep the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises steady and down; 4) Keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Vice president Liu also mentioned that the plan of the year lies in the spring. The policy depends on the front force, actively respond to market concerns and walk in front of the market curve. For the flexibility and enthusiasm of the follow-up policy, we believe that the follow-up policy will be more powerful and positive, the real economy will be more flexible, and the prediction of the performance of listed banks in the future will be more positive. The profit expectation of the banking industry in 2022 is stable and positive, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Market performance
The banking sector index rose 4.26% this week, outperforming the market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the gem index fell 2.72%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11%. It is suggested to focus on high-quality joint-stock banks ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), large undervalued state-owned banks Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) and high-quality urban and rural commercial banks ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601825) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) ).
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, tightening monetary policy, increasing risk of non-performing rate, outbreak of major risks and events of default, etc.
