Industry core view:
From January 17, 2022 to January 23, 2022: this week, the new power industry decreased by - 2.9%, and the CSI 300 increased by 1.11% in the same period, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.01pct. It ranks 21st among Shenwan's 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: the State Council issued the "14th five year plan" for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system, which puts forward clear requirements for the promotion of new energy and clean energy transportation equipment and the construction of charging and replacement facilities network. The plan points out that it is necessary to promote the electric replacement of urban public service vehicles and vehicles in ports and airports, and the proportion of electric vehicles in new or updated ground buses, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, rental, official business, environmental sanitation and other vehicles in cities with a population of more than one million (except in severe cold areas) shall not be less than 80%. Improve the layout of urban and rural public charging and replacement networks, actively build intercity charging networks and supporting facilities for fast charging stations in expressway service areas, and realize that the coverage rate of fast charging stations in expressway service areas in national ecological civilization test area and key areas of air pollution prevention and control is not less than 80% and 60% in other areas. Vigorously promote the integrated construction of parking lot and charging facilities to realize the interconnection of parking and charging data and information. The policy is conducive to the construction of new energy vehicles and related infrastructure. The financial power point has shifted from the past car purchase subsidies to the overall construction, and pay attention to the power exchange technology and application. New energy vehicles in different scenarios in public and private use have different requirements for batteries. High-end models will be dominated by high nickel batteries, while low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will have more significant price advantages in the future. We are optimistic about the further improvement of lithium iron phosphate battery penetration in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant cathode targets. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the countdown starts during the Spring Festival holiday, the upstream link changes significantly, and the silicon material price not only stops falling, but also rebounds significantly. However, considering the demand and terminal acceptance of the component side, the price has not been significantly adjusted. At present, the execution price in January is mainly based on the delivery of early orders. The rising price of upstream silicon materials sends the message that terminal demand is improving and new capacity continues to be released. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. Recently, the bid for the 200MW wind power project in Guazhou of SDIC was opened, and the lowest price was 2080 yuan / kW of Sany Heavy energy. At present, the unit price of tower tube Market in this region is about 400 yuan / kW. After deducting the price of tower tube and anchor bolt, the unit price of the whole machine is about 1600 yuan / kW. Sany Heavy energy can brush a new low in the industry this time. The fall in fan prices promoted the release of demand. Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615), and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186) are recommended.
Hydrogen energy: on January 18, Lingang group held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony with Shanghai Environmental Exchange. In this signing, the two sides will give full play to their respective resources and advantages and jointly accelerate the settlement of hydrogen energy trading function platform in Lingang New Area; We should strengthen the pilot demonstration of hydrogen energy, give full play to the scene advantages of the new port area and the group system, accelerate the demonstration and application of hydrogen energy in transportation, construction, energy and other fields, and promote the construction of hydrogen energy industry demonstration area; We should actively explore dual carbon finance to boost the green development of the industry. Although the application of hydrogen energy is in the pilot stage, there is great room for development in the future. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338), and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
