Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 0.58%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.62 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the winter epidemic will counterattack, and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions: ① medical beauty: the potential space on the demand side is broad, the supervision on the supply side is stricter, the upstream profitability is strong, and the competition pattern is good. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion, channel sinking and so on; ② Cosmetics: in the face value economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics. Recently, a number of cosmetics related laws and regulations have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is beneficial to the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and child: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and child racing track in advance.
Market review: last week (January 17 to January 23), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell by 0.58%, and the retail trade index lost 0.62 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 13th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 3.22%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 4.34%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12 percentage points, ranking 18th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $17.03 to $1834.55 / oz, and silver rose $1.32 to $24.27 / oz. ③ E-commerce data: in December 2021, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in December, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) youzilai / Caitang, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) Lianhuo, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) Winona performed better; In terms of jewelry, Gmv of most brands declined in varying degrees, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) and Cartier performed better.
Important announcements of listed companies: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) and Kidswant Children Products Co.Ltd(301078) forecast performance; Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) release performance express and announcement of investment in industrial park; Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) senior management change; Hengan international equity incentive.
Important events in the industry: ① press conference of the National Health Commission on January 20, 2022: introduce the progress and experience of implementing the decision of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on optimizing Fertility Policies and promoting long-term balanced population development; ② Zhejiang adjusted the provident fund loan policy to encourage three children, and rongchuang cashed about 4.25 billion on schedule; ③ Retail sales in Hong Kong rose steadily.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
