Core view
Highlights of this week
In December, the terminal sales volume Byd Company Limited(002594) won the sales champion in July, and Hongguang Mini continued to dominate the list;
Suining Shengxin lithium hydroxide project was put into operation, and the annual output of lithium energy lithium salt increased to 70000 tons;
Byd Company Limited(002594) establish a battery joint venture with FAW to accelerate the production of blade batteries;
Nikola signed an electric truck battery supply agreement with proterra;
GAC components and CRRC times set up a joint venture;
Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110. SH): it is proposed to build a 100000 ton copper foil production base in Huangshi, Hubei Province;
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812. SZ): sign the 2022 supply guarantee framework agreement with China Innovation Airlines;
Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) (000049. SZ): lithium battery material price of 20gwh energy storage cell project to be invested with 7.5 billion yuan
Cobalt products: electrolytic cobalt (500000 yuan / ton, 0%); Co3O4 (399000 yuan / ton, 1.27%); Cobalt sulfate (103000 yuan / ton, 0.24%);
Lithium products: metallic lithium (1.825 million yuan / ton, 13.71%); Lithium carbonate (342000 yuan / ton, 4.91%), lithium hydroxide (287000 yuan / ton, 7.10%);
Nickel products: electrolytic nickel (176000 yuan / ton, 5.89%), nickel sulfate (40000 yuan / ton, 1.02%);
Midstream material: ternary positive electrode (523 power type, 285000 yuan / ton, 5.96%; 622 single crystal type, 287000 yuan / ton, 2.14%; 811 single crystal type, 301000 yuan / ton, 2.74%); Lithium iron phosphate (114000 yuan / ton, 0%); Negative electrode (artificial graphite (310-320mah / g) 36000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (330-340mah / g) 56000 yuan / ton, 0%; Artificial graphite (340-360mah / g) 73000 yuan / ton, 0%); Diaphragm (7 + 2) μ M coating: 2.6 yuan / flat, 0.00%; 9+3 μ M coating (2.2 yuan / flat, 0.00%); Electrolyte (iron lithium type 110000 yuan / ton, 0%; ternary type 113000 yuan / ton, 0%; lithium hexafluorophosphate 59000 yuan / ton, 0%)
Investment proposal and investment object
In December, the terminal sales volume Byd Company Limited(002594) won the sales champion in July, and Hongguang Mini continued to dominate the list; Under the triple drive of policy stimulus, diversified supply and improved consumer recognition, electric vehicles will accelerate the replacement of oil vehicles, and the high outlook of the industry will continue. 2021 is the year with the best profit of midstream materials, and the prices of all links have been raised to varying degrees. The increase in prices will inevitably lead to an increase in the speed of production capacity. Considering the production expansion plan and speed of each link, the barrel effect is still effective. The tight production capacity and slow technological iteration in some links may be interpreted as the bottleneck of the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles, and become a potential sector with both volume and price. We expect that 2022 diaphragm and solvent may become a short board in the industry chain.
With the launch of new production capacity, it is expected that the price of core materials will stabilize or even fall, and the overall cost of battery terminal will decline in the future, while the rising trend of downstream price is very certain. With the increase of battery gross profit margin and the decrease of cost rate caused by superposition of scale effect, the battery link ushers in a profit inflection point.
To sum up, it is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, not rated); Midstream materials focus on diaphragm links Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812, not rated), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (300568, not rated), Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) (002108, bought); Solvent link Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026, buy), it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (300037, not rated), Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) (300082, not rated); Ternary materials pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799, buy) as the core subject of integrated layout, and it is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073, not rated).
Risk tips
Subsidies have declined, and the sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk.
