Liquidity: the growth rate difference of m1m2 was flat month on month in December 2021. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in December 2021 was 47.13, a month on month increase of + 7.26%. The high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in December 2021, flat month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the price and processing fee of nodular cast pipe are at a high level since 2011. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 0.42%, cement price index – 0.85%, rubber – 2.48%, coke + 4.58%, coking coal + 4.83%, iron ore + 2.98%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 1.19pct, -3.37pct, -3.10pct and -6.88pct respectively; (3) According to our prediction, 45% of the demand for centrifugal nodular cast pipes in 2020 will be distributed in the field of municipal pipe network and 35% in the field of water conservancy. At present, the price and processing fee of nodular cast pipes are at the highest level since 2011.
Real estate completion chain: the prices of glass and titanium dioxide were flat, and the profits increased. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and + 0.00% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 3476 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.91%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 476 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 35.23%; (3) The price of PVC was 8900.00 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.42%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire remained at a low level in the same period of 6 years. (1) The price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 0.72%, – 0.52%, + 0.85% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 20.55%, + 0.39%, – 6.21%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 55.01%, with a month on month ratio of – 4.35 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the price of thermal coal continued to rise to 1000 yuan / ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum fell 6.21% month on month. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price this week is 177650 yuan / ton, up + 5.96% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 19200 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.67%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 4850 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the profit is – 376 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21340 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.85%, and the estimated profit is 4274.9 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of – 6.21%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 553 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 5.53%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 1000 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 5.82%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread widened to 240 yuan / ton on Friday. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.47 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar this Friday is 240 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 780 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 20 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.13, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between coil screw (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, unchanged month on month.
Export chain: in December 2021, global PMI new orders rose by + 0.1 points to 53.4 points month on month. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 3555.24 points this week, up + 1.87% month on month; (2) In December 2021, the new order value of global PMI was 53.40, a month on month increase of + 0.10 points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was + 1.11%, the cyclical sector ranked first in shipping (+ 5.88%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) was 29.19% and 54.14% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.67, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.92 (reached in February 2018).
Investment suggestions: Recently, relevant departments have repeatedly stated that the construction of national water network and urban municipal pipe network will become the starting point of new infrastructure. It is suggested to pay attention to the following targets: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
