Key investment points:
China has broad rehabilitation needs. The end beneficiaries of the rehabilitation medical industry mainly include the elderly, patients with chronic diseases, the disabled, postoperative dysfunction, postpartum dysfunction, seriously ill people and other groups, with huge potential rehabilitation needs. According to the global burden of disease study (GBD) on rehabilitation published in the lancet, it is estimated that about 2.41 billion people around the world may benefit from rehabilitation treatment during illness or injury. Among them, China has the largest demand for rehabilitation, with 460 million people in need.
The number of rehabilitation hospitals in China continues to increase, and the number of beds in rehabilitation medicine is increasing year by year. According to the China Health Statistical Yearbook, from 2010 to 2020, the number of rehabilitation hospitals in China increased from 268 to 739, with a CAGR of 10.68%. Among them, non-public rehabilitation hospitals are the main driving force for the growth of the number of rehabilitation hospitals; In 2020, there were 573 non-public rehabilitation hospitals in China, 4.86 times that in 2010. From 2015 to 2020, the number of beds in rehabilitation medicine departments of Chinese health and medical institutions increased from 161800 to 300400, with a CAGR of 13.17%. Although the supply of rehabilitation beds in China is growing, it has not yet reached the state of supply-demand balance, and there is a large gap at the supply end.
Recently, there have been frequent policies related to rehabilitation medicine, which has helped accelerate the development of rehabilitation industry. In June 2021, the National Health Commission, the national development and Reform Commission and other eight ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on printing and distributing opinions on accelerating the development of rehabilitation medical work, proposing to gradually establish a rehabilitation medical professional team with reasonable quantity and excellent quality, and strive to reach 6 rehabilitation doctors and 10 rehabilitation therapists per 100000 population by 2022. In October of the same year, the National Health Commission issued the notice on carrying out the pilot work of rehabilitation medical services. In 2022, the pilot work of rehabilitation medical services in 15 provinces will be carried out to actively respond to the aging population. Pilot provinces and cities will try first to form local experience that can be replicated and popularized, so as to drive the rapid development of national rehabilitation medical services.
The release of China's rehabilitation medical demand is expected to drive the rapid growth of the rehabilitation medical device market. According to Frost & Sullivan, from 2014 to 2018, the market scale of rehabilitation medical devices in China increased from 11.5 billion yuan to 28 billion yuan, and the CAGR reached 24.9%. Frost & Sullivan forecast data show that the market scale of China's rehabilitation medical devices will increase to 67 billion yuan in 2023, and the annual compound growth rate from 2018 to 2023 will be 19.1%. The release of China's demand for rehabilitation medical treatment is expected to drive the continuous improvement of the demand for the allocation of rehabilitation medical devices and promote the rapid growth of the overall market scale.
Investment strategy: maintain the overall "recommended" rating of the rehabilitation medical device industry. China's demand for rehabilitation medical treatment is broad. Under the catalysis of policies, China's demand for rehabilitation is expected to accelerate the release, the number of rehabilitation medical related institutions will continue to increase, and the rehabilitation medical device industry will usher in a golden period of development. It is suggested to focus on companies with excellent product quality, more varieties, independent R & D and innovation, strong ability to promote high-end products and gradually enhance brand effect, such as Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) , Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) .
Risk tips: industry policy change risk, market competition risk, indirect sales model risk, technology upgrading iteration risk, new product development and registration risk, capacity expansion risk, etc.
