Market review: the increase was in the front section, leading the market by 0.86 percentage points. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 2.0%, 0.86 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking ninth among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 51 stocks rose this week, an increase of 4 over last week and 90 stocks fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in this week’s report refers to 2022 / 1 / 15-2021 / 1 / 21).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of commercial houses in 34 cities this week was 3.521 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 12.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.3%. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 669000 square meters (Mom – 16.2%, yoy – 24.2%), the sample second tier cities were 2.11 million square meters (Mom – 14.0%, yoy – 21.8%), and the sample third tier cities were 742000 square meters (mom – 3.0%, yoy – 51.9%). Judging from the year-on-year turnover area of new houses in the cumulative three weeks this year, in the first tier cities this week, except Shanghai (10.7%) which was positive year-on-year, Beijing (- 30.0%), Guangzhou (- 55.8%) and Shenzhen (- 52.4%) were negative year-on-year. Among the second and third tier cities, Nanjing (27.2%), Hangzhou (15.0%) and Chengdu (12.0%) were positive year-on-year, while Yancheng (- 90.0%), Huai’an (- 83.4%) and Wenzhou (- 80.7%) were negative year-on-year. Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1188000 square meters, down 13.1% month on month and 28.4% year-on-year; Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 3.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 24.4%. The sample of first tier cities this week
The transaction area of second-hand houses was 332000 square meters (Mom – 2.0%), the sample second tier cities were 696000 square meters (Mom – 20.4%), and the sample third tier cities were 159000 square meters (mom 4.5%). The cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 884000 square meters (year-on-year – 35.4%), the sample second tier cities were 1942000 square meters (year-on-year – 13.8%), and the sample third tier cities were 444000 square meters (year-on-year – 36.8%).
Credit bonds: a total of 7 credit bonds of real estate enterprises were issued this week (1.17-1.23), down 14 month on month; The total issuance scale is 5.275 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is -6.353 billion yuan. The issuance scale this week totaled 5.275 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 10.295 billion yuan, a total repayment of 11.628 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 3.917 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was -6.353 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 14.212 billion yuan. In terms of subject rating, the subject rating disclosed in the issuance of real estate enterprise bonds this week is mainly composed of AAA (75.9%). In terms of bond types, the issuance of real estate enterprise bonds this week is mainly composed of general corporate bonds (29.4%) and ultra short-term financing bonds (21.3%). In terms of bond maturity, bonds of 0-1 years (59.7%) are dominated this week. In terms of financing cost, the bond interest rates of Beijing zhukai (- 49bp), Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) (- 78bp) and xinjing’an (- 24bp) are lower than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Financing related indicators: in January 2022, the one-year LPR was 3.70%, down 10bp month on month, and the five-year LPR was 4.60%, down 5bp month on month. According to wind statistics, in December 2021, 355.8 billion yuan of medium and long-term loans were added to households, down 38.9% month on month and 19.0% year-on-year. As of 2021q3, the balance of commercial real estate loans was 51.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the balance of real estate development loans was 12.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of the same level.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the positive direction of the policy is clear, and the “overweight” rating is given to the real estate development sector. The weekly data of new houses and second-hand houses fell slightly this week after the significant growth on a month on month basis last week. Due to the high base at the beginning of last year, the year-on-year data of this week is still under pressure. However, we believe that the central government’s policy direction is clear and the intensity continues to increase. With the interest rate cut and the changes in the regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in some cities, the demand side policies such as superimposed provident fund were relaxed. The policy recovery is expected to accelerate the arrival of the bottom of fundamentals. The current favorable policies have not yet reached the peak. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to be favorable, and the real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, abundant liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality, especially the state-owned central enterprises, will benefit more. It is suggested to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including A-Shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, the strength of real estate tax policy is higher than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
