Market review of last week (2022.1.17-2022.1.21): last week, the Shanghai index rose in the first two days and then fluctuated. By Friday, the Shenzhen index rose in the first two days and fell in the next three days. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3522.57. The CSI 300 rose 1.11% last week to close at 4779.31. The gem fell 2.72% to 3034.68 last week. Last week, two of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose, with the range from high to low: Tourism and scenic spots (+ 5.17%), tourism retail (0.08%), hotel catering (- 0.41%), education (- 2.44%) and professional services (- 5.69%). Last week, 10 of Shenwan (2021) 31 primary industries rose, and the top five rose in coal, computer, banking, food and beverage and architectural decoration. Among them, the social service sector fell 1.29%, ranking 15th among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.40pcts. The increment space of tax exemption in Hainan can be expected, and the CPPCC Guangdong Provincial Committee proposed to support the tax-free industry; The spring festival scene drives the growth of hotel sales, and the hotel takes advantage of the situation to expand business ideas; The 14th five year plan for tourism development was issued to support the revival of confidence in the tourism market.
Main points:
The tax-free increment space of outlying islands can be expected, and Guangdong Province pays attention to rich tax-free economic formats: according to the data of Hainan Provincial Bureau of statistics, the total amount of social zero in the province in 2021 was yoy + 26.5%, ranking first in the country. On the 19th, the fifth session of the 12th CPPCC Guangdong Provincial Committee opened. The meeting pointed out that the growth of tax exemption in Hainan confirms the potential of China’s tax-free market, and Guangdong Province should make full use of favorable conditions to support the tax-free industry. Previously, according to the data of the Department of Commerce, the total sales of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 2021 were yoy + 84%, and the growth rate of total social zero still has a large growth space compared with this growth rate. Therefore, the proportion of duty-free market in the consumer market is expected to further increase in the future.
The spring festival scene has driven the growth of hotel sales, and the hotel has taken the opportunity to broaden its business ideas: according to the data of flying pig, the reservation volume of Hotel New Year’s Eve related goods has increased by more than twice month on month in the past week, and the proportion of local guests is high. Some hotels have launched packaged packages of “accommodation + New Year’s Eve dinner” to meet the needs of hotels for the new year. Qunar platform data show that the average price of hotel reservations for the Spring Festival reaches 716 yuan per night, up 20% from before the epidemic. With the help of the spring festival scene, the hotel broadens its business ideas and provides more services to consumers. It is expected to improve the comprehensive income through value-added services driven by the new year’s Eve meal.
The 14th five year plan for tourism development was issued to support the revival of confidence in the tourism market: on January 20, the State Council issued the 14th five year plan for tourism development, which proposed to steadily develop outbound tourism, promote the coordinated development of outbound tourism with the three major markets of Chinese tourism and inbound tourism, and take the Winter Olympic Games as an opportunity to build a high-quality route of sports tourism Vigorously develop ice and snow tourism and other favorable policies. The tourism market has been frustrated under the epidemic, and the issuance of the plan reflects the importance attached to building a tourism power, which is expected to boost the market as a guide.
Investment suggestions:
Hainan’s tax-free incremental space can be expected, and the CPPCC Guangdong Provincial Committee proposed to support the tax-free industry. In 2021, the total amount of social zero in Hainan Province is yoy + 26.5%, which still has great room for improvement compared with the tax-free growth rate of outlying islands. Therefore, the proportion of the tax-free market in the consumer market is expected to continue to grow in the future. As a leader, China tax exemption has high-quality growth in the medium and long term. The spring festival scene drove the growth of hotel sales, and the hotel took the opportunity to expand its business ideas. The 14th five year plan for tourism development was issued to support the restoration of confidence in the tourism market. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) and other hotels, scenic spots and tourism comprehensive service targets in the logic of cultural and tourism recovery; It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises that are good for the release of ice and snow tourism demand.
Risk tips:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
