In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.04% and – 0.86% respectively, and the trade retail (CITIC) index rose by – 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (14 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 3.22% and – 5.57% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 2.50%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 1.40%, ranking 15th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, nine of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose, with the top three industries being coal, computer and banking, up 5.49%, 4.57% and 4.26% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 2.50%, ranking 14th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, six of the 29 CITIC’s primary industries have risen. The top three industries are banking, coal and real estate, with increases of 6.16%, 4.76% and 2.52% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were department stores, professional markets and gold jewelry, with an increase of 1.34%, 0.52% and – 1.47% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are supermarkets, professional markets and home appliance 3C chain, with an increase of 0.62%, – 0.43% and – 1.70% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 28 companies rose, one company was flat and 64 companies fell. Over the past week, the top three companies were Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) and Xinjiang Winka Times Department Store Co.Ltd(603101) , with increases of 40.65%, 35.02% and 19.40% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 48 companies have increased and 45 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) and Xinjiang Winka Times Department Store Co.Ltd(603101) , with growth rates of 128.83%, 36.31% and 27.87% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
In the early spring festival, the attention of the retail sector increased significantly. In addition to Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) on the theme of digital payment, Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) on the theme of customized wine and prefabricated dishes also showed a strong trend this week, with a wave of significant independent market. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market has high enthusiasm for the retail sector, which reflects the lack of hot spots in the market as a whole and the enthusiasm of theme speculation. On the one hand, from the perspective of fundamentals, the growth rate of social consumption in December 2021 is still in the bottom consolidation stage; On the other hand, the market’s expectation of policy stimulating consumption is relatively high. Therefore, we believe that the overall market is dominated by theme and supplemented by fundamental improvement expectation. We suggest investors to invest cautiously and rationally. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
