Crude oil: prices rose across the board. In the early part of the week, US gasoline demand fell and crude oil inventories were released, but the situation in Russia and Ukraine intensified, the market was optimistic about the economic outlook, supply was limited, demand recovered, the global supply and demand situation was tense, and crude oil prices fell first and then rose. Later in the week: OPEC increased production cautiously and predicted better market demand, the Middle East oil producing country UAE was attacked, the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey was interrupted by fire, and the International Energy Agency raised its oil demand forecast, which exacerbated the concern of crude oil supply shortage, and the crude oil price rose to the highest level in seven years. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 87.38 (+ 4.30) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 85.14 (+ 4.49) USD / barrel.
PX: the market continues to rise. Crude oil prices rose and cost side support continued to be strong. On the supply side, there was no significant change in market supply during the week, and the overall supply was basically stable. On the demand side, the demand for raw materials in the downstream PTA market increased. During the week, the load of a set of 2.25 million T / a PTA unit in the Northeast increased, and the production capacity of Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.Ltd(600370) 1.2 million T / a increased and restarted. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 973.58 (+ 37.40) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 336.33 (+ 6.60) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 168.76 (+ 17.02) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 70.83% (+ 0.63pct).
PTA: after the market rose, it fell back in a narrow range. Cost side support continued to be strong. On the supply side, with the increase of northeast unit load and the restart of Jiangsu Sanfame Polyester Material Co.Ltd(600370) unit, the market supply continued to increase. The factory sold spot goods within the week, with a large outflow of spot goods, and the circulation of goods in the spot market was relaxed. On the demand side, the start-up of downstream factories has declined. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there are signs of shutdown and holidays in the downstream polyester and terminal market, the logistics in some areas has decreased, the raw material market has increased significantly, the downstream procurement demand is limited, the cumulative range of market supply and demand has increased, and the upward trend is weak. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 5290.71 (+ 81.43) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is 52.63 (- 47.57) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 72.20% (+ 1.70pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2335000 (+ 2000) tons.
MEG: the focus of market price is upward. Crude oil prices rose across the board, naphtha international prices rose, coal prices rose slightly, and cost side support was strong. On the supply side, Henan Longyu 200000 t / a unit was restarted on January 20, Zhejiang Petrochemical 750000 T / a unit was restarted on January 14, Xinhang energy 400000 T / a unit was restarted on January 14, and Zhenhai Refining and chemical 800000 T / a new unit was discharged on January 16. The output increased and the support of the supply side weakened. On the demand side, the terminal industry has gradually entered the holiday, the start-up of the polyester industry remains at a high level, the production and sales are flat, the operating load of the weaving industry is maintained, and the demand remains weak. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 5251.43 (+ 137.86) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 6635 (- 39500) tons, and the operating rate is 58.20% (+ 1.70pct).
Polyester filament: the market showed a volatile upward trend. At the beginning of the week, many filament enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude, the sentiment of killing and falling in the downstream gradually rose, and many mainstream large factories had preferential plans. In the middle of the week, the raw materials were relatively weak, and the manufacturers were mainly on the sidelines. Boosted by the international oil price, the double raw materials opened higher and went higher, and the filament enterprises increased the promotion. In fact, the price was increased, but the preferential shipment was offered. The focus of the market transaction fell, and some downstream bargain hunting purchases made the market better. However, due to the cost pressure, the preferential space for filament narrowed. At present, filament enterprises have great cost pressure, the focus of market transactions has obviously shifted upward, and most of the downstream have entered the holiday mode. Market shipments have slowed down, the demand side will remain weak years ago, and the rising resistance of polyester filament will increase. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy7930 00 (+ 227.86) yuan / ton, fdy8164 29 (+ 250.00) yuan / ton and dty9500.00 yuan / ton 00 (+ 192.86) yuan / ton, the average profit per ton of the industry is POY + 295.02 (+ 73.64) yuan / ton, FDY + 185.03 (+ 88.34) yuan / ton and DTY + 474.23 (+ 50.41) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy14.00 yuan / ton respectively 70 (+ 0.70) days, fdy18 20 (- 0.30) days and dty21 00 (+ 0.50) days, the operating rate is 84.40% (- 1.10pct).
Weaving: a sharp decline in construction. At present, the filament price is at a high level, the manufacturers are not willing to continue to stock goods, and the new year is approaching. The construction of downstream and terminal weaving factories has fallen sharply, and most of them have entered the holiday mode, and the demand will remain weak before the year. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 41.78% (-4.51pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.70 (- 0.10) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fell after rising. The average cost of polyester staple fiber rose, the trend of raw materials was strong, and the focus of market transactions moved down slightly. On the supply side, this week, Ningbo Huaxing hollow staple fiber plant stopped for maintenance, Tianjin Petrochemical staple fiber plant started to restart, and Hubei Lvyu staple fiber plant stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decline in staple fiber output. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber was poor this week. Towards the end of the year, the start-up of downstream polyester yarn enterprises continued to decline, and the inventory was sufficient. More cautious operations were carried out, and the procurement remained just needed. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 7525.24 (+ 203.33) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 192.30 (+ 57.37) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are -0.70 (+ 0.70) days, and the operating rate is 84.40% (- 1.10pct).
Polyester bottle chip: light downstream demand. On the supply side, at present, the supply of polyester bottle chip manufacturers is still tight, the factory inventory has increased, and the inventory of most bottle chip manufacturers is at the level of 1-2 days. On the demand side, in the early stage, most of the terminal beverage manufacturers have prepared sufficient goods, while the large soft drink manufacturers have no replenishment demand for the time being. Some small and medium-sized enterprises still have low-cost supply inventory, and the overall willingness to replenish is not high. Most of the domestic trade markets just need replenishment, and the downstream replenishment quantity is limited. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 8264.29 (+ 142.86) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 815.57 (+ 17.23) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 88.10% (+ 1.30pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to January 21, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 168.84%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 27.97%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346. SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) (000703. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301. SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
