Cement, waterproof and pipe materials rose well in the early cycle of this week, and market sentiment hovered in the steady growth of infrastructure and consumption, but the main line of the early cycle still performed well.
This week, the sector rose and outperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 7980.6 points, up 2.56%, outperforming wandequan a. The industry's average p / E ratio was 14.52 times, up 0.35 from last week. In the last year, the building materials sector fell by 3.02%, lower than the increase of 1.98% of wandequan a.
The early judgment was gradually verified and the cement industry continued to be recommended: we continued to recommend the cement industry. The central economic work conference stated that "steady growth" and "moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure construction", the issuance of special bonds in advance, the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects in many places this week, the acceleration of affordable housing construction and many other events confirmed our previous judgment. At present, the cement price has fallen a lot compared with the historical high in the fourth quarter of last year, but it is still higher than that in the same period of history. We believe that the accelerated decline in cement prices years ago is to better raise prices in the peak demand season. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、P·S32. 5. The price of powder was 386.4 yuan / ton, 472.6 yuan / ton and 451.8 yuan / ton respectively, with a decrease of 1.6 yuan, 4.8 yuan and 3.6 yuan respectively. The demand is still in the doldrums and the price is still declining slowly. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 40.0% and 0.4% respectively, with a decrease of 18.3% and 0.4% respectively. The approaching Spring Festival has led to a sharp decline in the operating rate of Clinker Mill.
Opportunities for continuous recommendation of pipe industry: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. Many places take urban pipe gallery, Anlan project and water conservancy construction as the key direction of infrastructure construction; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the bottom-up logic of the industry and focus on the b-end leader Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
Glass: the price is stable and rising, and the middle and lower reaches have high enthusiasm for hoarding goods before the Spring Festival: the price of flat glass this week was 106.4 yuan, up 0.3 yuan from last week; The inventory days were 11.7 days, down 1.0 days from last week. China's float glass market operates well, the middle and lower reaches have a high enthusiasm for hoarding goods before the Spring Festival, and the inventories of production enterprises in major regions have decreased. This week, the prices of key provinces increased steadily, while the prices of Hubei and Fujian increased more; Inventories in most provinces fell, while inventories in Hubei and Hunan fell more.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended to Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance
