In 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and the social zero situation recovered steadily. The annual growth of cosmetics sector is stable and high, which has increased by 14% year-on-year. The rapid growth of the tiktok is the key factor for the sustained high boom in the cosmetics industry, especially in the sales of the shaking platform.
Key points
Overall consumption of social zero: in 2021, social zero basically recovered to the pre epidemic level, and the growth rate of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) basically converged. In 2021 as a whole, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44082.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. Compared with the total social zero of 3919.86 billion yuan in 2020, the social consumption of water improved significantly in 2021, and exceeded the total social zero of 40801.72 billion yuan in 2019. From the perspective of main growth channels, online social zero in 2021 increased by 12.00% year-on-year, which was the same as the overall growth of social zero. From the single month of December 2021, the total amount of social zero reached 412689 billion yuan, but the growth narrowed, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%.
Cosmetics consumption: cosmetics maintained high growth throughout the year, with a certain slowdown in December. The total retail sales of cosmetics in the whole year was 402.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 14.0%, which was higher than that of consumer goods, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In a single month in December, the sales volume of cosmetics was 34.14 billion yuan. Affected by the overdraft of double 11 early consumption, the growth rate of cosmetics slowed down month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but still better than the overall growth rate. Rapid growth on tiktok is a key factor in the continuous high boom of the cosmetics industry, especially in the sales of the shaking platform. According to Euromonitor data, from 2011 to 2020, the growth rate of China’s cosmetics online sales continued to be higher than that of offline sales, driving the upward growth of the industry. Combined with the zero online growth rate of China social security in 2021, we believe that the high growth of the cosmetics industry in 2021 is still inseparable from the help of online platform sales. From the online platform, the growth of the cosmetics in the shaking platform is far higher than that of the panning tiktok platform.
The future of the cosmetics industry is tiktok: it will continue to boost the growth of the industry, and the national brand of the platform will benefit. The tiktok tiktok tiktok is accelerating the layout of the platform. In the future, the rapid development of the shaking platform will provide a quick bonus for the national brand of the fast track platform.
Investment advice
Cosmetics industry: in the past five years, the growth rate of China’s cosmetics market has led the world. At the same time, the brand competition has intensified and the online channel sales have increased rapidly. The channel changes are conducive to the rapid market expansion of domestic brands. Brands that can accurately grasp the needs of consumers and enhance the brand effect driven by diversified marketing are more likely to continue to expand the market. Key recommendation: leading skincare products of Dermatology grade with product differentiation Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ; Focus on the strategy of large single products and constantly expand the series of large single products Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ; Independent brands plus brand agents operate two wheel drive, showing an upward business inflection point of Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) . It is suggested to pay attention to: multi brand strategy layout and continuous operation improvement of Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) ; Under the high growth terminal demand, the OEM demand is driven by Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) ; The cost side is gradually repaired and the production capacity is further released Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) .
Medical beauty industry: China’s medical beauty market is in the stage of rapid increase in penetration, and the terminal demand is relatively strong. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of R & D and technology of Chinese enterprises, domestic brands continue to expand the Chinese market with higher cost performance. In the current situation of stricter policy supervision and severely cracking down on the non-compliance and illegal medical and American market, it is beneficial to China’s leading enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to: medical beauty leader Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) with the ability of forward-looking and differentiated product layout; Hyaluronic acid raw material leader Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) for continuous product development.
Major risks
The expansion of new products is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Policy risk; Product safety risk.
