Performance forecasts have been released one after another, and high growth is expected to catalyze the short-term sector market. Since this week, listed companies in the sector have successively released performance forecasts for 2021. From the released companies, the performance of most listed companies has shown a high growth situation. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 455.84% year-on-year, corresponding to 4xpe (corresponding to the closing price on January 21, the same later), and Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) increased by 444.14% to 504.59% year-on-year, corresponding to 4xpe, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) increased by 99.4% to 143.6% year-on-year, Corresponding to 6 ~ 7xpe, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) increased by 473.33% to 553.33% year-on-year, corresponding to 5 ~ 6xpe. Next week, it is expected that some listed companies in the sector will successively release performance pre increase announcements. The profit growth of the sector is obvious, the valuation is low, and the superimposed coal price is still in the rebound channel, which is expected to catalyze the market of Listed Companies in the sector in the short term.
Before the Spring Festival, the purchase price rebounded more than expected, and the high inventory of the power plant restrained the rebound height. With the approaching of the new year, some small mines have been shut down for holidays, and the supply has been tightened slightly. Downstream, before the Spring Festival, the supply of electricity and non electricity downstream was active, and the short-term market demand was relatively strong, driving the continuous rebound of coal prices, and the rebound range was slightly higher than expected. However, as the Spring Festival approaches and the holidays of downstream industrial enterprises increase, the demand for non electricity downstream is expected to fall. The inventory of the power plant is at a high level, and the procurement rhythm may slow down. It is expected that the market will be in a weak situation of supply and demand during the Spring Festival, but due to the high inventory of power plants, it may have a certain inhibitory effect on the height of price rebound.
Coke or supply and demand are weak, and the price runs smoothly. According to the coal resources network, at present, most coking enterprises produce and sell immediately, the shipment is smooth, and the inventory in the plant continues to decline. However, with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, the production restriction policy in the surrounding areas of Beijing has gradually become clear. Coke and steel enterprises are facing the expectation of production restriction, and the coke price is expected to be weak in both supply and demand. However, the short-term coking plant is still in the stage of inventory reduction, the profit of the steel plant is poor, but there is still a strong demand for procurement in the short term, and the price is expected to run smoothly.
Coking coal prices are expected to run smoothly. According to the coal resources network, near the end of the year, at present, some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Taiyuan Gujiao, Linfen Guxian, Jinzhong Lingshi and other areas have stopped production and holidays, and the supply of coking coal has shrunk slightly. Downstream, some steel mills have slightly limited production, while some coke enterprises have completed winter storage and replenishment, the demand for raw coal has decreased, and the price is expected to run smoothly.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
