Background: the steady growth policy is overweight, and the signal of promoting consumption is clear. On January 16, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, which pointed out that we should create an upgraded version of online festival consumption, guide e-commerce enterprises to open the “no closing” mode, and hold online promotional activities such as annual purchase and catch-up fairs. Combined with the characteristics of the festival, we will launch more customized and intelligent products, and where conditions permit, we can jointly issue consumption coupons and people-friendly coupons to enterprises; Speed up the connection of the county rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system, and speed up the brand consumption and quality consumption into the countryside; Further stimulate the new vitality of smart retail; Promote the digital transformation and Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) coordination of physical shopping malls, supermarkets and convenience stores, develop new retail formats such as warehousing member stores and “store to store” services, accelerate the cultivation of new scenes of experiential and immersive consumption, and improve the level of consumption intelligence and convenience. We believe that the elasticity of emerging consumption is stronger because it is in a period of rapid growth.
The high growth of relevant scale performance shows the high prosperity, and it is full of elasticity after adjustment. Despite the pressure on the growth of social zero data in the second half of 2021, recently, the relevant targets of the new consumer sector released the performance forecast for 2021. We found that blue chips have achieved high growth as a whole. Among them, 1) Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased by 105% – 127% in advance, and the medical and American leader has moved forward rapidly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 900-1 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 104.66-127.40%. Deduct the net profit of non parent company 850-950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.36% – 129.93%. It is expected to realize the net profit of parent company 191-291 million yuan in Q4 single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 28.18% – 95.30%, and the net profit of parent company 283 million yuan in Q3 single quarter. Among them, the annual sales of hi body series is expected to increase by 120% year-on-year, and the revenue of bonida is expected to increase by 100% year-on-year. Yubai angel has completed the distribution of main terminal institutions, Contribute about 6kW revenue to 2021. 2) Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) : multi brand and omni channel layout, with performance growth exceeding expectations. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 7.66 billion yuan / yoy + 9% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 655 million yuan / yoy + 52%, of which Q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.83 billion yuan / yoy + 10% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 235 million yuan / + 99%. 3) Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) : high performance, brilliant performance, upstream extension + layout is worth looking forward to. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2-2.05 billion yuan in 2021, 211.9% – 219.7% year-on-year; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.85-1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 248.4% – 257.8%.
Investment suggestion: the valuation has been greatly adjusted to a reasonable level. The overall penetration rate of emerging consumption is still low. The relevant targets have the logic of innovation, consumption upgrading and domestic substitution. They have strong growth driving force and have a high outlook in the medium and long term. Maintain the Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) “recommended” ratings of strong combination fist products with high barriers and good competition pattern, and recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) with stable leading position and diversified development possibility. It is suggested to pay attention to Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) and Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) with marginal improvement logic and expected to benefit from industrial policies.
Risk tip: weak consumer demand as a whole, intensified industry competition, etc
