Investment summary:
Talk every Monday:
Recently, Bridgestone, a global tire giant, issued a price increase notice. Affected by factors such as the rise in the price of raw materials, the price of Bridgestone's whole series (excluding 295 / 80R22.5) has increased by 3% from February 1, 2022. In addition to international brands, Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) and other Chinese enterprises have also issued price increase notices. We believe that the price rise of tire manufacturers is expected to reduce the impact of rising raw material costs, and the growth of automobile production and sales and the improvement of exports in the era of epidemic will promote the bottom recovery of tire industry.
The market share of domestic tires has increased. With the acceleration of China's urbanization and the continuous development of overseas markets, the demand and ownership of automobiles and other engineering vehicles are rising, driving the rapid growth of China's tire production. However, in the passenger car tire market, the market share of foreign and joint venture brands is as high as 70%, and local enterprises only get about 30%, which is mainly concentrated in the replacement market. In the future, China's tire enterprises will gradually narrow the gap with the world's advanced level. At the same time, the concentration of China's tire industry is expected to further improve
Tire demand is expected to improve significantly: the tire demand market is divided into the supporting market for new cars and the replacement market for stock cars. We believe that the market capacity of the tire industry will continue to grow in the future, mainly due to the following two factors. On the one hand, the popularity of automobile in China is still low, and the huge development space of automobile supporting market and replacement market will drive the market capacity of tire industry to continue to grow. On the other hand, China's tire export performance exceeded expectations. In 2021, China's cumulative export volume of rubber tires was 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. With the gradual recovery of the global supply chain and the continuous decline of international sea freight prices, there is still room for tire exports to improve.
Investment strategy: the growth of automobile production and sales and the improvement of exports in the post epidemic era will promote the recovery of the bottom of the tire industry. With the continuous capacity upgrading of China's tire industry, the domestic substitution process is expected to accelerate. In the future, China's head tire enterprises still have a lot of room for development in the production of high-grade and high value-added tires. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) and other Chinese industry leaders.
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC's basic chemical sector fell 4.7%, and the composition of the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.1%. Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, the basic chemical sector lagged behind by 1.6 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the basic chemical sub sector mainly fell this week, with carbon fiber, civil explosives and other sub sectors leading the increase; Phosphorus fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, potassium fertilizer, cotton fiber, modified plastics, spandex and other sub sectors led the decline
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the basic chemical sector led the rise this week, including Shandongsino-Agriunitedbiotechnologyco.Ltd(003042) , Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) , Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation(002917) , Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) ; The leading stocks include st Mingke, Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) , Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , St Chengxing, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) .
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk of repeated global epidemics, etc.
