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The actual capacity increment of soda ash industry in 2022 is expected to be very limited:
According to the existing planning, the potential new capacity of soda ash industry is 4.6 million tons, but most of the new capacity in 2022 is planned to be completed by the end of the year, and the actual output growth is around 1 million tons.
In the future, about 1.3 million tons of soda ash production capacity may be withdrawn, and the soda ash production capacity is expected to remain in a net reduction in 2022. The soda ash industry will face serious capacity constraints before 2025. The capacity constraints will not be alleviated until the production of 5.4 million tons of natural alkali in phase I of Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) at the end of 2025. The improvement of float glass market has improved the medium-term consumption expectation of soda ash:
The real estate market is expected to turn from cold to warm. Recently, with the improvement of glass factory goods, the medium and long-term trend of glass is further improved. Previously, the market's expectation of cold repair of glass production line weakened, and the marginal expectation of soda ash consumption improved. Photovoltaic glass is still a long-term growth point of soda ash consumption in the future:
According to the prediction of the photovoltaic industry association, the average annual installed capacity of global photovoltaic will be 150-170gw in 2021, and the new scale of China in 2021 will be 55-65gw. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual new scale of China's photovoltaic will be 70-90gw.
Photovoltaic glass is a necessary material for photovoltaic modules. According to the 3.2mm single glass, the demand for photovoltaic glass corresponding to 1GW single glass module is 52000 tons; According to the double glass 2.0mm/2.5mm glass, the corresponding photovoltaic glass demand of 1GW double glass module is 68000 tons / 82000 tons respectively.
With the increasing maturity of the industry and assuming the penetration rate of double glass modules increases, the demand for soda ash in the field of photovoltaic glass is expected to be about 2.31 million tons in 2021 and about 4.31 million tons in 2025. It is optimistic that the demand increment of soda ash will exceed the supply reduction in 2022:
We believe that the limited supply of soda ash will continue, and the increase in the scale of photovoltaic glass over time can offset the losses caused by the cold repair of some flat glass production lines. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading capacity of soda ash equity: Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Cnsig Inner Mongolia Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(600328) . Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC's primary petroleum and petrochemical index rose or fell - 3.22%, ranking 25th among 30 industry indexes. The Shanghai index rose or fell 0.04% this week, and the CITIC primary petroleum and petrochemical index was - 3.26% relative to the Shanghai index. The rise and fall of petroleum and petrochemical sub sectors: oil refining (- 0.72%), oilfield services (- 1.90%), oil exploitation (- 2.87%), engineering services (- 3.95%), other petrochemical (- 4.06%), oil sales and storage (- 5.61%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: this week, the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the rise of individual stocks, including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) (+ 0.94%), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (+ 0.61%), Jiangsu Baoli International Investment Co.Ltd(300135) (+ 0.36%); Stocks leading the decline include Yueyang Xingchang Petro-Chemical Co.Ltd(000819) (- 13.49%), Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) (- 12.98%), Daqing Huake Company Limited(000985) (- 10.49%), Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) (- 9.30%), Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) (- 8.82%), etc.
Risk tip: policy risk; Geopolitics exacerbates risks; The risk of sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and the risk of continued deterioration of the global covid-19 epidemic;
