Weekly talk: comprehensive transportation system of traditional infrastructure space
The 14th five year plan for the development of comprehensive transportation system: the planning increment has shrunk. The national development and Reform Commission announced the 14th five year plan for the transportation system, and proposed to realize the integrated development of comprehensive transportation by 2025. The operating mileage of high-speed railway will reach 50000 kilometers, the traffic mileage of highway will reach 5.5 million kilometers, including 190000 kilometers of expressway. Compared with the actual new scale in the previous two five-year periods, the planned new scale during the “14th five year plan” period has shrunk compared with the previous period, which generally reflects the slowdown in the construction of traditional transportation infrastructure. The most significant decline is the highway traffic mileage. 618000 kilometers were completed and opened to traffic during the 13th Five Year Plan period, while the planned increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period was only 302000 kilometers. It should be noted that the planning indicators are expected indicators. Referring to historical experience, the actual construction increment often exceeds the planning increment. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the mileage of high-speed railways, highways and expressways actually constructed greatly exceeded the planned scale, of which the actual increment of high-speed railway mileage exceeded the planned increment by 72.7%. This trend may continue during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Research on sales channels of building materials: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) build a highly effective sales system according to customer groups, and fully tap the expansion and sinking potential of sales channels through integrated companies + partners. Engineering building materials adopt the combination of direct sales and distribution. The direct sales department of the company is responsible for the customers of centralized real estate procurement. In the field of non real estate business, the company has established several integrated companies to fully tap the category expansion capacity of sales channels, and the integrated companies cooperate to promote the sales of waterproof and non waterproof materials. The retail channel mainly adopts the hierarchical distribution system. At present, there are more than 3000 first-class dealers and more than 110000 sales outlets. At the same time, it actively expands the customers of home decoration companies and tooling companies. At present, it has established cooperative relations with more than 500 large decoration companies and more than 20000 home decoration companies. The channel of Yuhong civil construction group has achieved strong user stickiness through the establishment of points system, mainly through the establishment of monetization of member points to encourage dealers, and the establishment of “honggehui” member system, with the number of members reaching nearly one million.
Tracking of key sub industries:
Glass: as of January 21, the average price of the latest glass in China was 2086.3 yuan / ton, up 0.63% month on month compared with the previous week, ending the decline and turning to rise. At present, the demand is mainly for goods preparation, and the middle and lower reaches have a good enthusiasm to store goods before the Spring Festival. Futures prices rebounded significantly this week. The main contract rose 6.02% this week, and the futures price has been higher than the spot price in some regions. The total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 35.58 million weight boxes, down 7.1% from last week. The strong demand for goods in the middle and lower reaches prompted the inventory to fall. The inventory of manufacturers in Shahe area was about 6.8 million boxes, down 1.04 million boxes. Under the expectation of changing coal to gas in Shahe area, manufacturers mainly support the price. At present, there are 13 production lines in Shahe area, which may switch to natural gas. The change of fuel structure leads to the increase of cost, which supports the price. 11 of the 22 production lines in Shahe area have been in production for more than 10 years, and there is great uncertainty at the supply end. At present, it has entered the window period of glass layout. We will continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) integrated leading Xinyi Glass, which has entered a new growth period and has continuously increased its market share.
Cement: as of January 21, 2022, the national average price of cement was 475.92 yuan / ton, down 1.62% from last week and up 7.19% from last year. In winter, the marginal demand of cement terminal drops and the price continues to fall. Provinces and regions across the country have successively announced plans to stop kilns during peak shifts in the first quarter, and the number of days to stop kilns generally exceeded that in the same period last year. The northern provinces continued to implement staggered peak production from January to March, and the kiln closures in the southern provinces in the first quarter were mostly concentrated during the Spring Festival. The inventory of enterprises increased slightly compared with last week, and the average national clinker storage capacity ratio was 55.96%, an increase of 0.39% compared with last week. Compared with the same period last year, the average price difference between cement and coal increased by 11.72%.
Consumer building materials: it will take time to improve the real estate data, and the leading waterproof and pipe leaders in non real estate business are preferred. As the time line is lengthened, the logic that the market share of consumer building materials enterprises continues to increase is still the main line of investment in the building materials industry. After experiencing the real estate credit difficulties in 2021, enterprises will pay more attention to business quality. The trend of market share concentration to the leader remains unchanged, and the growth attribute of the industry leader is still not very significant. Continue to recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) and China Liansu.
Market review: as of the closing on January 21, the building materials sector rose 2.56% and the CSI 300 index rose 1.11%. From the sector ranking, the building materials sector ranked eighth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, with an increase of – 2.28% year to date, ranking 11th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
The top five stocks rose: Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) .
The top five stocks fell: Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Jiangsu Jingxue Insulation Technology Co.Ltd(301010) , Zhengwei new material, Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.Ltd(002613) , Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) .
Investment strategy: focus on recommending China Liansu, the leader of engineering plastic pipe benefiting from infrastructure investment, the Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with high prosperity of traditional business and entering a new growth period, Xinyi Glass, the industrial leader with continuous improvement of market share, and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) with dominant consumption attributes in building materials and Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) with constant strength. It is recommended to pay attention to the cement market and steel structure leader Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) driven by the expected rise in infrastructure construction.
Risk tip: the demand of real estate chain declines, infrastructure investment slows down, and the price of raw materials fluctuates.
