Market review:
As of the closing on January 21, the coal sector rose 5.5% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 1.11%, and the coal sector rose 4.39pct ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the weekly increase of coal sector ranks first among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 4.69% year to date, ranking second among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The port inventory continued to decline and the power coal price strengthened: Recently, the coal supply guarantee policy continued, the export ban in Indonesia was relaxed, the low temperature continued, and the daily consumption of power plants operated at a high level. The downstream non power plant procurement demand was strong this week, and the stock replenishment trend before the festival continued. The coal inventory of northern ports was -8.59% (+ 1.19pct) on a weekly basis and + 0.87% (- 2.74pct) on a year-on-year basis. The power coal price strengthened significantly, Qinhuangdao Port coal price (q5500) rose by 55 yuan / ton to 1000 yuan / ton; Subject to the high inventory, the gradual recovery of Indonesian exports and the gradual weakening of transactions, it is expected that the subsequent rise of coal prices will be limited. With the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal prices is expected to narrow and gradually move closer to the long-term association price. Recently, coal enterprises have successively issued announcements of significant pre increase in performance, Continue to pay attention to the sustainability of downstream replenishment in the near future and the repair trend of Industry Valuation under the background of large increase in performance;
The replenishment of steel mills came to an end, and the price of double coke operated steadily: on Friday, the weekly output of large varieties of steel was – 2.63% (- 3.39 PCT), the national blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills increased significantly, while the profit per ton of steel fell. The fourth round of coke increase this week has not been fully implemented, and the factory price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 140 yuan / ton to 3200 yuan / ton; Safety inspections in Shandong and Shanxi are becoming stricter, and coke enterprises are willing to further raise prices; The price of coking coal continued to run strongly under the influence of the security inspection action of main producing areas. The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was stable at 2830 yuan / ton, the profitability of coking enterprises was restored, and the enthusiasm for procurement was increased; The possibility of continuous administrative production restriction in the iron and steel industry has gradually decreased, but in the short term, affected by the production restriction in the heating season and the increase of overhaul in the Spring Festival, the price rise of double coke may slow down;
Market impact: the short-term consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the performance of coal enterprises is expected to increase and the transformation expectation is expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; Affected by the limited production in the heating season and the overhaul in the Spring Festival, the output of steel mills declined slightly and the rise of coal coke slowed down;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
