Key investment points
Port data in mid January
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: - 0.1% year-on-year, including foreign trade throughput - 3.9% year-on-year
In mid January, European and American port congestion intensified, and the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports increased by - 0.1% year-on-year; Among them, the year-on-year foreign trade throughput was - 3.9%, the growth rate was 11.1pct lower than that in early January, and the year-on-year growth rate turned negative.
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 1.3% year-on-year
In mid January, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 1.3% year-on-year (the previous value was + 3.5%). Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers was + 2.3% (previous value + 5.9%) and that of domestic trade containers was - 1.8% (previous value - 3.9%) year-on-year.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 8.4% (previous value + 7.9%); In terms of port deposit, year-on-year + 9.3% (previous value + 12.3%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 3.2% (previous value + 19.4%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on January 21 was 154 million tons, an increase of 24.1% over the same period last year.
Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port - 8.3% year-on-year (former value + 6.0%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, the year-on-year rate was - 14.3% (the previous value was - 14.5%).
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container rates in coastal ports
Event: on December 1, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the shipping company would increase the loading and unloading charges of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade would be increased by about 50%; On December 8, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that it would be implemented from January 1, 2022. The lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2020, the container related revenue was 13.345 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.307 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 12%;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) in 2020, the revenue related to containers was 5.554 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.431 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 12.1%;
3) Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) in 2020, the revenue of qqct (51% equity participation) in charge of container business was 3.874 billion yuan, and the total net profit of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) was 3.842 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 4%.
Tips on actual rate: Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) this price adjustment is the adjustment of the published price, but it should be noted that there is a difference between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company, which does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) cargo throughput of coastal ports in December: year on year + 3.2% (previous value + 2.5%)
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 0.3% year-on-year
Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers increased by + 1.1% (previous value + 0.7%) year-on-year, with an increase of 0.4%.
(3) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year in December + 30.2% (previous value + 10.6%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 17.1% (previous value + 11.1%) in December; Coal: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 12.6% (previous value - 0.6%) in December (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber).
(4) key coastal ports
In December, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Guangxi increased rapidly, Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) cargo throughput increased by 29.3% year-on-year in the same month. The year-on-year growth rates of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) and Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) ports were 28.4% and 6.9% respectively.
In December, the throughput of foreign trade goods in Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased year-on-year, and the throughput of Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) containers increased by more than 21% year-on-year.
Key ports: in December Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber), the cargo throughput was 46 million tons. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) the cumulative foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput were + 3.2% and + 7.8% respectively year-on-year.
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on January 21, the BDI index was 1415 points, a decrease of 24.5% compared with January 13 and a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on January 21, the BDTI index was 692 points, a decrease of 0.9% compared with January 13 and a year-on-year increase of 39.0%.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on January 21, the SCFI index was 5053 points, down 0.81% from January 14 and up 76.1% from a year ago.
China's export container freight index (CCFI): on January 21, the CCFI index was 3555 points, an increase of 1.87% over January 14 and a significant year-on-year increase of 80.8%.
Investment advice
RCEP has officially come into force, which is expected to catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports in the medium and long term. RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement) entered into force on January 1, 2022. With the formal entry into force of RCEP, Member States will immediately implement zero tariffs on a large number of products. In the future, 90% of products will enjoy zero tariffs in about 10 years. According to surging news, RCEP is expected to drive a net increase of US $519 billion in exports of Member States by 2030, and the growth of medium and long-term foreign trade volume will catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports.
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of increasing quantity and stabilizing price is verified step by step. Benefiting from the expansion of routes, the company has driven the growth of container business and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, which has driven the growth of liquid bulk cargo throughput, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large market caliber) completed 630 million tons of cargo throughput in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%, and 23.71 million TEU of container throughput, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%; In terms of rates, on January 23, Shandong Port Group, Qingdao SASAC and Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) Group signed the free transfer agreement. 51% equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group will be transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge, and the actual controller of corresponding Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares will become Shandong SASAC, further promoting the improvement of regional port pattern in Shandong Province. We expect the rate end to continue to improve.
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : underestimate the leading value, benefit from the regional advantages, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. In 2021, the company's container throughput increased by + 8.1% year-on-year to 47.033 million TEU, and the cargo throughput increased by + 5.7% year-on-year to 539 million tons. On January 7, the company held a 2022 port and shipping business consultation forum to discuss port and shipping cooperation with major domestic and foreign trade shipping companies, and reached a consensus on consolidating the original cooperation and jointly developing new mechanisms. In addition, with the help of Haifa new port opened for operation, the company's home port is expected to further strengthen business ties with ports on the "maritime Silk Road" in the future and continue to consolidate the company's position as an international shipping hub port.
Risk tip: deterioration of Global trade; The global epidemic lasted longer than expected; The port policy was less than expected.
