Industry core view:
The National Energy Administration released the photovoltaic installation data on January 20. In 2021, China added 53gw of grid connected photovoltaic power generation installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of + 10%. The installed capacity ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years. Under the high growth of photovoltaic demand + technology iteration, n-type battery will accelerate the replacement of p-type battery. TOPCON and hjt will join hands to enter the mass production stage, and the leading equipment manufacturers with leading technology advantages will benefit first.
Key investment points:
The photovoltaic industry pursues cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, and the n-type battery has accelerated to replace the p-type battery in 22 years. In the previous generation of battery technology, BSF was completely replaced by perc within three years after reaching 20% of the theoretical efficiency. At present, p-type battery is gradually approaching the theoretical efficiency limit of 24.5%, and photovoltaic technology is gradually developing to n-type battery technology with higher theoretical efficiency. Leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad have laid out n-type battery chip technologies such as TOPCON and hjt. In the future, n-type battery will accelerate its penetration, and the market space of n-type battery equipment is broad. The more efficient characteristics of type n will help reduce the cost of photovoltaic land, improve the income of power generation, and provide guarantee for the sustained and rapid growth of installed capacity. At present, the n-type battery technology with mass production possibility mainly includes TOPCON and hjt technology, and their double-sided theoretical efficiency is 28.7% and 28.5% respectively. Under the condition that neither hjt nor TOPCON technology has obvious cost performance than perc, dual technologies will coexist in the future.
TOPCON is technically extensible, and mass production in 22 years is imminent. TOPCON can be transformed and upgraded on the existing perc production line, and the equipment transformation cost is about 50-60 million yuan / GW. The equipment cost of the new TOPCON production line is about 200 million yuan / GW, which has a cost advantage over hjt equipment of 400 million yuan / GW. According to the statistics of pvinfolink, by the end of 21, TOPCON's production capacity is planned to exceed 130gw. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 22 years will be about 30GW, corresponding to the value of new equipment of 6 billion yuan. At present, TOPCON has achieved mass production with an average efficiency of 24% +, and the maximum efficiency of the laboratory is 25.4%. Recently, Jingke 8gwtopcon project has been put into operation, which is conducive to further cost reduction under large-scale mass production.
Hjt technology has obvious advantages and is expected to become the next generation n-type technology. Heterojunction battery has the advantages of high conversion efficiency, low temperature rise coefficient, high double-sided rate, low photoattenuation and simple process flow. At present, the biggest challenge of mass production is that the cost is still higher than perc. According to the statistics of open market data, the planned capacity of hjt in the market in recent two years has reached 116gw, and it is estimated that the new capacity in 22 years will be 20-30gw, with the corresponding equipment value of 8-12 billion yuan. At present, hjt has achieved mass production efficiency of 24% +, and the maximum efficiency of the laboratory is 26.3%. Recently, the heterojunction mass production project has been continuously promoted. In January, Aikang & China Resources 8GW heterojunction project was settled in Ruian, the Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) 600MW microcrystalline heterojunction production line was installed, and the Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) 5GW project was started in Yancheng in December 21; Maiwei heterojunction equipment went to sea for the first time, and Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) PECVD equipment was verified by Jinneng technology. This year is the first year of mass production of hjt. With the promotion of localization of silver paste and wafer slicing, the industrialization cost of hjt will be further reduced. It is expected that the cost of hjt will be equal to perc by the end of 22. It is suggested to pay attention to the heterojunction equipment with the whole line supply capacity.
Risk factors: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, and the reduction rate of non silicon cost is less than expected
