Industry core view:
Last week (January 17, 2022 to January 23, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, and the Shenwan food and beverage index rose 3.81%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.77 percentage points, ranking fourth among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. The performance of food and beverage was stronger than that of the market as a whole, with each sub sector rising more and falling less. After a period of adjustment, the Baijiu sector is strong again, and is among the top gainers. The local outbreak of Henan and other places has limited impact on the Baijiu industry. With the epidemic prevention and control more precise and effective, the consumption policy gradually becomes effective. Baijiu opens the Spring Festival and sells the new year. In the long run, Baijiu demand is stronger, and the fundamentals of the sector are steady. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (1) Baijiu: the high-end liquor is still strong, and the growth of the second high-end liquor is prominent. 2) Beer: the “internal roll” of high-end beer has intensified. Industry giants have arranged the ultra-high-end market and explored the price band of 1000 yuan. The long-term good trend of the sector remains unchanged. 3) Condiments: the impact of price increase is transmitted downward. The peak consumption season of the Spring Festival is approaching. It is suggested to pay attention to the recovery of demand. 4) Dairy products: the overall prosperity of the industry is upward, and the growth space is broad. It is suggested to pay attention to the leader of sector segmentation.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu sector rose 5.22%, of which Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (+13.39%), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (+7.58%) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+7.54%) rose by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor fell slightly. The 20-year Feitian Maotai wholesale price was about 3250 yuan, at a high level, and the price of Feitian loose bottles fell slightly, from 2810 yuan to 2820 yuan. Maotai was officially launched in 1935. On the evening of January 18, the launch conference of Maotai 1935 was held in the ancient square of Maotai Chinese liquor culture city. Maotai 1935 market guide price 1188 yuan / bottle. Ding Xiongjun, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Maotai Group and chairman of Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd., stressed that Maotai 1935, as an elegant tasting product launched by Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd., is a heavyweight member of “Maotai Maotai sauce and stock products”. Maotai has reduced 2694 liquor products in total. The second workers’ Congress of the sixth Maotai Group held recently revealed a group of data on the development of Maotai. The company’s liquor output increased by 18.5% year-on-year, the blending qualified rate reached more than 95%, the packaging qualified rate reached 99.99%, and the production quality was stable and better. In terms of promoting brand “slimming” and optimizing governance, the company has reduced 198 liquor brands and 2694 products. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the price of liquor remains unchanged. The price of puwu (eighth generation) is maintained at 965 yuan / bottle, and the price of puwu (seventh generation) is maintained at 960 yuan / bottle. Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) : orders for core products are suspended. On January 18, Sichuan yitianfeng Trading Co., Ltd. issued a notice that in view of the completion of the implementation of the product quota in the first quarter of 2022, the company decided to suspend the receipt of orders for Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) core product series products (zhenniang No. 8 and jingtaizhuang) from now on. Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) : restricted shares were listed and circulated on January 24. On January 18, the announcement showed that 25 million restricted shares of the company will be lifted and listed on January 24, 2022, accounting for about 4.73% of the total share capital of the company. The number of shareholders applying for lifting the restricted shares this time is 13, and the total number of securities accounts involved is 80. Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 1.23 billion yuan to 1.28 billion yuan. On the evening of January 18, the announcement showed that the company expected to achieve a net profit of about 1.23 billion yuan in 2021, and its operating performance increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. For the reasons for the growth of performance, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) said that in 2021, the high-end Baijiu consumption market was significantly warmer, and the company’s old wine strategy was gradually accepted by the market and other reasons. The company’s revenue was expected to grow by about 83% over the same period last year. Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the profit in 2021 is expected to be 880 million yuan – 950 million yuan. On the evening of January 18, the announcement showed that the company’s profit in 2021 was 880 million yuan – 950 million yuan, an increase of 79.00% – 93.24% over the same period of the previous year. For the reasons for the performance growth, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) said that in 2021, the company’s brand value continued to improve, the market expansion was steadily promoted, the terminal construction was continuously strengthened, and the sales revenue in the reporting period increased significantly. It is estimated that the operating revenue in the reporting period will be about 3.4 billion, an increase of about 86% over the same period of last year, which will greatly increase the performance in the same direction in the reporting period.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Dairy products: Yili: Jindian launched ultrafiltration milk and officially entered the ultrafiltration milk market. Recently, Yili Jindian launched a new generation of “ultra-6” ultrafiltration milk. The product is filtered by ultrafiltration process. After 0.2 seconds of ultra instantaneous heating and sterilization, it is concentrated with multiple times of raw milk to produce high times of protein milk. The calcium content per 100ml is 180mg and the fat content is 1.5g.
Beverage: Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) : high performance and strong growth. On the evening of January 17, Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be 1.15-1.25 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 41.61% – 53.93%.
Snack food: Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) : shareholders Mr. Zhang Xuewu and Mr. Yang Linguang increased their holdings of 160800 shares of the company. On January 20, it was announced that since the announcement of the shareholding increase plan, the actual controller of the company, Mr. Zhang Xuewu, the director and deputy general manager of the company, Mr. Yang Linguang, increased 160800 shares of the company, accounting for 0.1242% of the total share capital of the company, with an increase amount of 12.5487 million yuan. Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) : the shareholder Hillhouse has reduced its shares by 1.47%. Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) announced that as of January 17, 2022, the reduction time has been more than half. The shareholders Zhuhai Hillhouse, Hong Kong Hillhouse and Ningbo Hillhouse have reduced 1.47% of the shares of the company through block trading. At present, the reduction of major shareholders hold a total of 30.112 million shares of the company, accounting for 7.51% of the total share capital of the company. The reduction plan has not been completed.
Food synthesis: Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) : the income is stable and the profit performance is slightly higher than expected. On January 20, it was announced that the company expected to achieve an operating revenue of 2780 million yuan to 2850 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 53.62% – 57.49% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 275 million yuan – 295 million yuan, an increase of 18.49% – 27.10% over the same period of the previous year. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 260-280 million yuan, an increase of 15.13% – 23.98% over the same period of the previous year.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
