Core view
In the market, the Wande all a index remained weak in the past five trading days, with a cumulative decline of 1.03%. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu last week, most of the food and beverage sub sectors are in a state of rising, of which liquor consumption rose the largest, rising 5.29%, obviously felt the liquor market heat warming, and after the initial callback, the liquor sector pessimism release, at present, some stocks enter the value layout interval. In addition, the concept of prefabricated dishes is hot, Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) and other price limits. Near the Spring Festival, many governments have launched local new year initiatives, giving birth to the demand for prefabricated dishes. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market. We believe that the industrialization of Chinese food and the demand for standardized production drive the expansion of the b-end market of prefabricated dishes, the increase of takeout penetration rate and the change of family structure promote the increase of the C-end sales of prefabricated dishes.
Industry trend review
Overall market performance, last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.11% to close at 4779.31, of which the food and beverage industry rose 3.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.70 percentage points and ranking third among the 28 Shenwan sub industries. In the last few years, the most of the food and beverage sub sectors were in the rising stage, with Baijiu rising the biggest, rising 5.29%, followed by beer (3.90%), soft drinks (2.73%), dairy products (2.31%), and meat products (2.18%). Food fell the most, down 3.76%, followed by rice wine (- 3.34%). In terms of individual stocks, Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (31.83%), Royal Group Co.Ltd(002329) (18.40%), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (13.39), Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) (12.59%), Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (12.36%) led the rise.
Industry highlights and important announcements this week
(1) on the evening of January 18, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) announced that it is expected to realize a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan to 1.28 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 112% – 121%; The company’s revenue increased by about 83% over the same period last year, and its operating performance increased significantly over the same period last year. (2) On the evening of January 18, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) announced that the net profit in 2021 is expected to be RMB 880 million-950 million, with a year-on-year increase of 79% – 93.24%. During the reporting period, the sales revenue increased significantly, and the revenue is expected to be about 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 86%. (3) Liquor said that on the evening of January 18, 2022, Maotai 1935 listing press conference was held in the ancient square of Maotai Chinese liquor culture city. Maotai 1935 market guide price 1188 yuan / bottle. Ding Xiongjun, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Maotai Group and chairman of Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd., stressed that Maotai 1935, as an elegant tasting product launched by Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd., is a heavyweight member of “Maotai Maotai sauce and stock products”.
Investment advice
1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on. 2) When popular products enter Q4, the high base effect gradually disappears, and the price increase alleviates the cost pressure. With the arrival of the peak season, the performance is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and so on.
Risk tips: the risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, food safety risk and market style change risk
