Core view:
Market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to 3522.57 points; The CSI 300 index rose 1.11% to 4779.31; SW nonferrous metals industry index fell 2.82% this week to 5377.22 points, ranking 20th among the 28 primary industries of a shares. In terms of molecular industries, among the five secondary sub industries of the non-ferrous metal industry this week, small metals, energy metals and new metal materials fell by 4.94%, 5.69% and 7.50% respectively, and only industrial metals and precious metals rose by 0.18% and 0.83% respectively.
Key metal price data: in terms of base metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the previous period closed at 71290 yuan / ton, 21430 yuan / ton, 25215 yuan / ton, 15675 yuan / ton, 178040 yuan / ton and 333920 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 0.24%, 0.94%, 1.22%, 0.55%, 8.54% and 8.70% respectively compared with last week; This week, London LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel and tin closed at US $9934 / ton, US $3023 / ton, US $3650 / ton, US $2355 / ton, US $24160 / ton and US $43350 / ton respectively, with changes of 2.20%, 1.55%, 3.65%, – 0.02%, 8.86% and 7.43% respectively compared with last week. In terms of precious metals, gold and silver in the previous period closed at 378.22 yuan / g and 5081 yuan / kg respectively, with changes of 1.21% and 6.23% respectively compared with last week; COMEX gold and silver closed at US $1836.1 and US $24.35 respectively this week, with changes of 1.08% and 6.23% respectively compared with last week. In terms of rare metals, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide and sintered NdFeB N35 blanks closed at 927500 yuan / ton, 13.1 million yuan / ton, 3.05 million yuan / ton and 257.5 yuan / kg respectively this week, with changes of 2.20%, 0.77%, 0% and 0% respectively compared with last week. This week, the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate, industrial grade lithium carbonate, battery grade lithium hydroxide and Australian lithium concentrate closed at 360437 yuan / ton, 335500 yuan / ton, 296333 yuan / ton and 2685 US dollars / ton respectively, with changes of 7.45%, 8.05%, 7.63% and 0.37% respectively compared with last week. This week, China’s electrolytic cobalt, MB electrolytic cobalt, cobalt trioxide and cobalt sulfate closed at 508000 yuan / ton, US $34.35/pound, 410500 yuan / ton and 106000 yuan / ton respectively, with changes of – 0.10%, 0.44%, 1.48% and 0.47% respectively compared with last week.
Investment suggestion: the market’s expectation of the Fed raising interest rates four times this year has been gradually digested, while the Central Bank of China cut interest rates this week and released a relatively loose monetary policy signal to support the price of non-ferrous metals from the aspect of liquidity. Under China’s policy of steady economic growth, infrastructure investment in various regions will be accelerated, and the real estate policy may be relaxed. It is expected to increase the demand for upstream industrial metals from the end edge of the industrial chain and transmit it to the improvement of the price and profit end of the industrial metal industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of leading industrial metal enterprises such as copper, aluminum and zinc under the theme of steady growth, and recommend Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899), Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) (000630), Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) (601168), Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) (000933), Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) (002532), Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) (600497). In addition, under the position adjustment at the beginning of the year, there was a huge shock in the new energy sector with a large increase in the early stage, and the correction of individual stocks in new energy metal industries such as lithium, cobalt and rare earth was obvious. However, in 2022, the demand for new energy automobile industry chain is still hot. The basic outlook of the upstream lithium, cobalt and rare earth industries is high, and the metal price is good and uncertain. From the performance forecast of 2021 annual report released by new energy metal leaders such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , the performance of the upstream resource sector of the new energy automobile industry chain began to release significantly. We are still optimistic about the investment opportunities of the cobalt lithium rare earth sector. The industry boom is still hot in 2022, and the continuous rise of prices makes the performance of the sector highly deterministic. Superimposed on the correction of the stock price in the early stage, the current valuation and investment cost performance of the leading enterprises of cobalt lithium rare earth is high. It is suggested to pay attention to notes Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466), Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) (002240) Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) （002756）、 Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) （002738）、 Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) （000762）、 Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) （600499）、 China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) （600111）。
